CoT Gold & Silver Report

 GOLD - COMMODITY EXCHANGE INC.                                       Code-088691
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 01/31/12                         |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
      NON-COMMERCIAL      |   COMMERCIAL    |      TOTAL      |   POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
  LONG  | SHORT  |SPREADS |  LONG  | SHORT  |  LONG  | SHORT  |  LONG  | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(CONTRACTS OF 100 TROY OUNCES)                       OPEN INTEREST:      425,133
COMMITMENTS
 197,478   26,119   22,607  147,555  357,417  367,640  406,143   57,493   18,990

CHANGES FROM 01/24/12 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST:     -1,899)
  23,999   -5,137   -6,911  -16,493   13,601      595    1,553   -2,494   -3,452

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
    46.5      6.1      5.3     34.7     84.1     86.5     95.5     13.5      4.5

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS:      308)
     183       56       71       52       47      265      149

SILVER - COMMODITY EXCHANGE INC.                                     Code-084691
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 01/31/12                         |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
      NON-COMMERCIAL      |   COMMERCIAL    |      TOTAL      |   POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
  LONG  | SHORT  |SPREADS |  LONG  | SHORT  |  LONG  | SHORT  |  LONG  | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(CONTRACTS OF 5,000 TROY OUNCES)                     OPEN INTEREST:      101,747
COMMITMENTS
  28,465    9,374   19,604   33,693   62,422   81,762   91,400   19,985   10,347

CHANGES FROM 01/24/12 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST:     -1,278)
   1,414   -1,560     -916   -1,590    2,118   -1,092     -358     -186     -920

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
    28.0      9.2     19.3     33.1     61.4     80.4     89.8     19.6     10.2

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS:      154)
      70       30       40       37       44      125       99

http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com

Regarding NFTRH Updates...

I was just searching through old updates looking for something I had sent to subscribers about Brent Cook (geologist, newsletter writer) being interviewed on BNN.  This is because I tend to note the 'picks' of people I respect and keep an eye on them for potential plays later on.

I have an eye on one of them right now, as it is in a beautiful little Inverted H&S pattern and want to hear again exactly what he had to say.  But I digress... [edit: actually, as I recall it wasn't a pick, but a positive response on the stock to a caller who asked about it.]

Regarding NFTRH updates, here is a short sweet one I just stumbled upon regarding an upside target on KGN, which was just mentioned yesterday on the blog.  I failed to sell and took the hit on their pre-feasibility disappointment, but that's show biz my friends.  I feel good knowing subscribers got this when it hit target though... ;-) 

BTW, the "HUI parameter of 610" also proved to be important, as it was critical support that Huey eventually lost on the way to all manner of ignominy.

Edit (2:44) I found the update with the Cook interview and as I stated in that update, listening to Brent Cook is a pleasure.  Especially when he says positive things about a company I am interested in, it's share price is significantly lower than when he mentioned it and its chart is in a pattern that flat out turns me on.  It will probably charted up in NFTRH173.  This racket is all about patience.  Good things come to those who can wait.

NFTRH Update - KGN to Target (9/12/11)

I have been so busy this morning I have not looked into why, but KGN has tickled the 'new highs' target per last week's technical update.

This, for anyone concerned.  I am not yet sure what I am going to do with it. 

Regards,

Gary

PS:  Also, see GSR post on the blog this morning:  http://biiwii.blogspot.com/2011/09/liquidity-by-gold-silver-ratio.html

HUI parameter of 610 is coming front and center.

http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com

30 Year Yield updated

Oh look, TYX is back above the EMA 50... 'Inflationary 2012' still alive and kicking.

http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com

QQQ @ Target

Speaking of targets, look at this over bought thing hit its target today.  Quick Bloomberg, call some market strategist touts with a few billion under management and get some sound bites for the public!

http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com

Parker Hannifin: Sometimes it takes a while

Remember middle of last year when we used to review PH, its extremely vulnerable topping pattern, and then its baby and big daddy 'W' bottoms?  Well, large US multinational manufacturer PH is finally locking in on to the final upside target by this updated chart.  It's the original one used, with a couple new markups.

http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com

Attn: NFTRH subscribers... Email Update sent

Update discusses SPX @ the lower end of our target and its implications with regard to policy, etc.  Also, gold stock fundamentals are reviewed in light of the 'inflationary 2012' theme.  More stuff too...


http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com

Get me into 'the Facebook'

Thanks to Paul for this hilarious thing...



http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com

More fun w/ the chart of Royal Gold (RGLD)

Previously we reviewed the daily chart of RGLD, showing a gap down lower where those champing at the bit could think about buying.

The weekly chart looks more like a Symmetrical Triangle as opposed to the daily's Ascending Triangle.  Either way, it's bullish.

BUT... would players be understanding of an interim decline to the low to mid 60's?  A 'no brainer' support zone is highlighted in green.

As for the funky MACD Head & Shoulders, NFTRH has noted one in silver that has already reached its downside objective.  RGLD's is lower.  None of this is to say that it is going to actualize - because it is an H&S on a momentum indicator after all, c'mon - but if it does and RGLD is at support, it's a buy.


http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com

Keegan Resources... you mean there was value after all?

You mean I was not crazy to re-buy this one, as it sold for not much more than net cash, gold in the ground nearly given away?  They had a disappointing pre-feasibility (higher than anticipated costs and cap/ex) release in September, but are still a viable company with a viable property, unlike most in the exploration realm.

I had been trading the stock since buying at around a ridiculous .50 in 2008.  Even with the booked loss on the most recent trade (taken at around 6.00, subsequent to this post) into the above noted news, KGN owed me nothing.

NFTRH added it back during its bottoming activity in the 3's and kept with it due to the chart, which continued to look constructive.  Now, it's paying off.  Sometimes, all that is needed is a little patience.  I have a few other bottom feeds that have tested my patience as well and am not doubting that there could be more upside pops to follow.  It's kind of the way this sector gets when the formerly frightened get brave and all come barging in at once. 

http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com 

NFTRH172 Excerpt 'Gold Stocks'

Gold Stocks

This is a snippet from NFTRH172 focusing on the writer's methods of viewing markets from a visual and psychological perspective.  I just want readers to continually think about herds and about what it takes to be able to get contrary these herds at the appropriate times.  NFTRH172 then proceeds on to actual intensive analysis of the precious metals sector and the macro market backdrop.

I learn by looking at pictures. When I was a kid I took a psychograph test on some machine that asked me to list my favorite colors and then spit this out, among other things: “You appreciate beauty in your surroundings… you are a visual learner”, and damned if the machine was not right. I am not a ‘facts and figures’ learner, which by the way is why you do not pay me to analyze the bottom lines of your favorite individual stocks.  :-)

No, here at the newsletter with the weird name, we are going to proceed within our comfort zone, and that means we are going to be bullish when it is appropriate on a risk vs. reward basis, per simple pictures that cannot be disputed (okay, along with a few facts and figures here and there). For instance, the picture above cannot be disputed in that gold stocks are in a decade long secular uptrend vs. the broad S&P 500. The HUI-SPX ratio broke upward out of an uptrend channel with the euro hysteria, and was simply hammered for having done so.

As this process played out, risk management was employed to mitigate a particularly nasty phase for gold stock players, in anticipation of better things to come. This picture was created during the carnage to lend perspective to the proceedings. The perspective was that the HUI was simply coming back to the positive side of the risk vs. reward equation vs. broad equities, as the ratio settled at a strong support area.

Everything else is just noise in my book. We know the generally supportive fundamentals of the sector and the ‘in line’ valuations of quality gold companies, but this view into the mechanics of a major macro theme playing out after the acute phase of the European debt meltdown, refines and distills the process into something understandable and actionable, for visual learners at least.

Every step of the way the gold captains implored the troops as to why precious metals were a vital asset in the face of monetary crisis, and why gold stocks were a good play on the precious metals as they sported excellent valuations, not seen since 2008. Well, the market did not care about all of this egghead stuff for four – count ‘em – FOUR months after the September high.

But the picture above provided perspective that would prove important for people who ultimately would like to be on the right side of things, at least where the interplay between broad stocks and the gold sector is concerned.

http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
http://www.biiwii.com/NFTRH/subscribe.htm

Perfection in a headline

The current plan - in effect since the early October 'Pivot' and activated upon a rise above SPX 1260 - is that the S&P 500, and indeed global markets far and wide would rally off of unsustainably poor sentiment upward to targets (SPX 1340-1360).

The plan calls for sentiment to be reset to over bullish, which it is and has been doing.  The plan calls for headlines like this to appear in the mainstream financial media:

Global Strategists Abandoning Bearish Views After Missing Rally

Just what is a 'global strategist' anyway?  Is that code for 'trend following tool putting massive amounts of other peoples' money at risk while dutifully following the herd's behavior'?  Is that what it means? 

“In hindsight, everybody was so beared up at the end of last year,” Mary Ann Bartels, the New York-based head of technical and market analysis at Bank of America, who predicted on Dec. 27 that the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index would probably fall about 15 percent in the first half before recovering, said in a Jan. 31 phone interview. “There was nowhere for the market to go but up.”

No, not everybody dumbass.  Just the majority, AKA the herd (incl. you), AKA the massive counter party to people who can think for themselves.


http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com

Maybe we really are all geeks...

Chart guys, that is.  I stopped in over @ SOH to get the bear view and there's Tim with a couple Mystery Science Theater 3000 videos.  Made me LOL and remember the days in the 90's when I would purposely skip out on social engagements on Saturday nights to stay home with a Martini and watch MST3K.  Then, one girlfriend started watching it with me.  I ended up marrying her.  Here's one of my favorites, Manos the Hands of Fate, just because.



http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com

S&P 500 Updated

SPX continues on its way to NFTRH's long standing 1340-1360 upside target.

I have had to eliminate what minor bear exposure I had and look forward to evaluating again on the way to target.  Bears will get excited about this daily MACD threatening to turn down, but of much more relevance is the weekly MACD, which is triggered up and now gone 0+.

I am sure perma bears will continue to find reasons why the world is ending and the new inflationary regime will not hold.  Here however, we will just get it right... by looking at pictures, staying unbiased and adjusting if/as needed.

SPX can bump 1340/1360 within a little baby reversal pattern (Reverse Symmetrical Triangle), suck in the rest of the dumb monied bulls, drop to one of the supports, shake out the dummies and then continue upward or at least remain buoyant throughout 'inflationary 2012', much to the consternation of the crash cultists.

That's one scenario anyway.  Don't you love the markets?  People should be looking at the macro indicators and mechanics behind markets like this, and not obsess on the market itself.

http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com

'Stocks Best Start Since 1994...'

Stocks Best Start Since 1994 Tops Commodities

From Bloomberg:

“People expected things to be much worse,” David Goerz, chief investment officer at Highmark Capital Management Inc., said in a telephone interview from San Francisco. His firm oversees $17 billion. “The positive economic surprises changed investors’ mindset about the probabilities of the U.S. tipping into a recession. Furthermore, you saw earnings come in generally better than expected.” 

Of course they did Dave.  They are the herd, and you are one of many sound bite robots that Bloomberg calls on the phone when it wants easily digestible sweet nothings to explain why events are what they are, in hindsight.

Stock investors are feeling good again.  Happy little stock investors back on track to under perform as they have since 2000.  They are so cute and cuddly, all tucked in for a nice little slumber.  Kootchie kootchie koo little stock investor.  Mommy has a plan for you and daddy is overseeing your financial well being.  Oh, so cute...

http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com

Pictures don't lie

A theme in NFTRH172 was that simple pictures can clear the mind of all the egg head intellectualizing (exhibit A: Prechter video below) and provide a view to a simple path.  Gold stocks are on a simple path to out performing broad stocks in 2012.  That's what this simple picture continues to tell this simple_ton.

http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com