XAU

I am bullish. You are entitled to be whatever you are but here is my bullish case... Miners' costs are dropping here and their product is hanging in relatively well. I am filling my bag holder bag up on down days a little at a time and awaiting a potential flush down to 110 (and corresponding 250-270 area on HUI) with the comfort that the fundamentals continue to improve. I have wanted oil down all these months. I have wanted copper down, aluminum down, the stock market down and yield spreads up. I have wanted fear up. As a gold stock trader you are used to emotion and fear always riding shot gun. Fundamentals are coming in line for the metal (monetary) and for the miners (potential expanded profit margins). Now, looking at this chart I see nothing to fear but perhaps 15%-18% downside near to intermediate term and a hell of a lot more than that potentially on the upside. The CoT reports are painting a picture of hedge funds and small specs continuing to take it on the chin while playing into the hands of the commercials. Then there's this chart; bullish in the big picture. Sentiment sucks and a deflation scare is in progress. Timing is tough to nail down, but in my opinion this is one of those rare times where you can feel like you're doing a Buffet and buying value before it becomes readily apparent. Again, fade at will since this is just the currently battered stance of some blogger who you do not pay for advice.

Edit (3:51) PS... I used to subscribe to Bob Hoye's Institutional Advisors, so you can see where much of my fundamental view comes from. I just found out the other day that they post their analysis here with about a week or so delay. Hoye's 'Pivotal Events' should make the case quite well. Just an fyi if you're interested.