Sunday, September 30, 2007
Saturday, September 29, 2007
After questioning my stance this week due to strong commodities, I have taken refuge in these weekly charts. Stance remains the same; gold above all else. I will hold my silver miners and a few other commodity odds & ends, but nothing about these charts says 'abandon the gold/contraction' stance just yet.
Friday, September 28, 2007
Thursday, September 27, 2007
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
Monday, September 24, 2007
Saturday, September 22, 2007
Gold above all else; that is the camp this blogger resides in as the contraction view still holds sway in the absence of Dr. Dove's panic rate cut magically fixing the financial system and credit markets. Then there is the 30 year bond yield. But oil has continued to make a monkey out of me (even as my few oil & gas holdings have gone nowhere), the commodity bulls are out in full force (gold's just part of the resource complex) and maybe they're right. Maybe it's instant presto hyperinflation. But I don't think so. I'll stick with contraction and continued inflation where the resource complex and possibly stock market follow gold up... eventually. First, as we enter the witching season, risk of correction is rising everywhere. That said, gold has broken the ascending triangle and a target is a target. Recall 900 from 9/14 post.
Friday, September 21, 2007
Bernanke to the rescue? I doubt it. This chart is profound in its implications. To be specific, the Fed is easing just as the short end of the bond market told them to. But on the long end, secular changes may be at hand. Throughout Greenspan's 'conundrum', long rates refused to play ball as he was hiking Fed funds. Those pesky foreign financiers of our consumer (something for nothing) economy kept rates contained by lapping up all that grade A debt. Well, it appears this game may be over.
As for the chart, I will admit that sometimes I see shapes or figures that don't really have names but when I see them I get excited. That is how I feel about the $TYX. Never mind the divergence and positive trend from 2005. The shape of this multi-year bottom simply 'looks' bullish. But back to the implications. If indeed this is rising in secular fashion, while the short end is grinding lower (1st lower panel) in fear of the ongoing credit crisis infecting the 'real' economy, and if the yield curve continues to rise (2nd lower panel) we will have continued pressure on an economy built on easy credit as the bond market (ie China, Japan, etc.) refuses to play ball this time and in fact implements the mirror opposite of Greenspan's conundrum; Dr. Dove will continue to lower rates (possibly in concert and competition with much of the industrialized world) while the bond market votes with its feet and drives up long rates.
This is potentially very nasty and patrons of the global casino are taking note. Some have slipped out the door while others, not so quick on the uptake are eying the exits nervously. And you wonder what gold is doing at fresh highs since secular changes began at the beginning of the decade?
Thursday, September 20, 2007
This is primarily a TA blog, but when the fundamentals began kicking in I had to abandon some of what I saw on the charts and bag hold right through some terrible days. While I use charts extensively, I also remain aware of the deplorable fundamentals of PonziConomy (it's global) and gold's superlative fundamentals in an age where many think 'something for nothing' is actually a viable long term strategy. Well, it isn't. Here's Huey's current situation. Bullish bullish bullish, but the miners need the majority of the rah rah commodity trade to fall back in relation to gold just as the stock market is doing. This is a process, not a one day or one week event.
BTW, thank you again for your thoughtful donations. It is very much appreciated!
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
With the blog and the website, I put in a lot of work and yes it is work I need to do anyway as I manage all our own accounts and a few for others. I have not commercialized what I do because a) I don't want to package myself as any kind of answer man and b) my personal situation still precludes taking on the extra work load required for the quality of service I would demand. So forward we go with the blog and the website depending once in a while on the thoughtfulness of viewers like you (sounds like a PBS pitch, I know). If you have received value from the opinions presented here, please consider tossing a nickel in the cup, and thank you!
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
Sunday, September 16, 2007
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Friday, September 14, 2007
Thursday, September 13, 2007
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
Saturday, September 8, 2007
Edit (9/10 @ 8:20 am) This from reader Jonathan in response to the theme of the article:
This story shall the good man teach his son;
And Crispin Crispian shall ne'er go by,
From this day to the ending of the world,
But we in it shall be remembered-
We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he to-day that sheds his blood with me
Shall be my brother; be he ne'er so vile,
This day shall gentle his condition;
And gentlemen in England now-a-bed
Shall think themselves accurs'd they were not here,
And hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks
That fought with us upon Saint Crispin's day.
This story shall the good man teach his son;
Friday, September 7, 2007
Thursday, September 6, 2007
But look at the gold sector run. Simply excellent. Everyone should have their game plans as far as profit taking, risk managing or holding goes. I hold all core miners and then some. Trading the trading account and holding the holding accounts, with cash for possible future opps. Good luck and enjoy.
Tuesday, September 4, 2007
Leave it to the mainstream financial media to neatly package a reason for each day's market moves. If Bloomberg's Koolaid reflects sentiment at large, and the gold sector is rising due to "the rally in equities", then by definition I must be cautious and open to the XAU 110 & HUI 260 possibilities noted previously because I am not bullish on equities beyond this rally. I don't think you sweep fundamental problems under the rug, click your heels and end up home in Kansas quite that easily.
As for gold, I remain bullish... VERY bullish. But rationalizations like the above are a caveat for the near term. Gold is counter cyclical and the real bulling of the metal will start when it gets the 'flight to safety as real money' bid and to hell with what oil, copper and the stock market are doing. Gold's "investment demand" comes into play when everything else is in question, and that includes t-bills. But maybe this is just one of the final major media bong hits before we settle into some cyclical changes in earnest. Edit (2:26) In the meantime, the gold stocks continue to out-perform the broad market since mid-August. That's not too tough to take. What a day today! ;-)