I have nothing technical to offer in the short term now, other than things are getting stretched. It has been a great run. I you've got profit and you like taking profit, well you know... but big picture remains nice. Edit (6:46) I looked, really I did. But found nothing I wanted to sell. Some are non-starters selling for 20-25 bucks gold in the ground and others that have run up are the stocks that are long term holds. I don't really have many traders. Maybe VGZ, but that has done nothing yet. Maybe PAL at some point. So I'll generally stick with the hold and add pullbacks theme. 2008 off to a great start and at some point down the road it may get better adding class tech stocks when they become sold out. As for gold, given that the patterns I went by (weekly sym-tri and daily sym-tri) have come to target, I have no new data points. But this thing could well just take a consolidation breather as the growth story - industrial metals, silver (vs. gold) and even stocks - gets a bid for a bit and outperforms. Edit (1/15 @ 7:03) Steve Saville checks in with a good read on the gold miners' advance: No Speculative Froth, Yet. The first line is "A pullback should commence within the next few days..." (this was originally written on the 13th, so we're there). He makes a point that hedge funds may have been piling into the major gold stocks (absent the public). As you know, when the hedgies begin selling it can be gut wrenching. So the question is whether or not this is the end of the gold miner run. I think not when considering the outperformance of their product vs. most financial assets, now including oil. This actually tells me that the proverbial 'smart money' is taking positions. Will the Dollar rally? It's daily chart still looks awful but the weekly is constructive for a rally at some point. But the gold-oil ratio has been leading the dollar, has it not? The yield curve is bullish. Credit spreads are bullish. To ride a major bull market you have to take some lumps. I still may skim a few profits here and there but given the 'buy the pullbacks only' discipline, I still have ample cash as there has only been one pullback (450 to low 430's HUI). Fundamentally, it is a lot more like 2000-2002 then the expansion enviro that followed, during which I was often uncomfortable with the gold miners running up in tandem with their bottom line cost drivers. That is not happening now.
PS: I disabled comments as there is a gnat buzzing around looking for attention and taking up too much of my time filtering out the foolishness. Have a great day.
Monday, January 14, 2008
Gold hits target
Posted by
Gary from biiwii.com
at
3:47 PM

