Thursday, May 1, 2008

Dow-Gold Ratio... come to papa

It is getting there. Emotions are being reset and expectations are being re-calibrated all around. It's over gold bugs... market says so! Bottoming pattern says 172 for the Dow-GLD ratio shown here. But this thing could Fib out at 50% considering the over bought status. Regardless, the risk/reward is much better on gold miners as even my most horrific scenario is only 15% below this level and that is not necessarily my favored target. HUI has already declined 26% in the slaughter of the not so innocents and for this writer at least, it is time to start getting bullish the gold stocks and bearish the stock market. I have some Asian etf's and cef's (closed end funds) that I have targets for about 5% north of here as we begin to anticipate the topping out of predictable human emotion swings.