Pardon me while I do a bit of promo work here. After they age a week or two, I post the NFTRH reports over on the main website because I want you to see how the letter operated under historically difficult (and interesting) circumstances. I will also eventually post a bunch of the email updates, but here is one that subscribers got this morning. As usual, I predicted nothing, but gave some parameters that have been attained. USD symmetrical triangle was first ID'd last week before it became clear to every trader on the planet, thus reducing its potency. If indeed the buck is double topping instead, this is why we use the 'panel' indicators as confirmation of such patterns. HUI chart (not posted here) working like a charm and the broad market certainly did give a "strong thrust higher with a close above the previous day's highs" and it did it on volume. Now, dat's a reversal.
Good morning,
The two updates on 11/6/08 highlighted the status of the US Dollar, with its bullish [symmetrical] triangle (but bearish lower panel indicators), made reference to the broad market's failure to break above important short term resistance (implying a test of the lows) and gave support levels for HUI after it turned down from resistance around 227.
I have attached the same HUI chart as everything on it remains in play. The first support level failed yesterday and the index dropped to near the final support level at around 175. That has held and I personally added a very small amount to the spec portfolio at that level, but am keeping cash on hand for the possibility of more downside.
Meanwhile, the broad market is on the retest as well and this is all very normal activity. If we hold at or around the October lows and get a strong thrust higher with a close above the previous day's highs, I will become bullish. It is more comfortable being long a successful retest then catching falling knives in an initial panic. For those not fundamentally engaged, cash remains the place to be until confirmation.
I have also attached a new chart showing what could be a double top forming on the USD, but have caution. If MACD triggers up and the STO rises above 80, it will begin to look like previous targets in the low 90's are in play (see NFTRH7). If the Dollar were to put on this kind of a display short term, I would likely become quite bearish for the near and intermediate terms.
Regards,
Gary
