Friday, November 28, 2008
An important distinction; While I now own things like oil, a Canadian Royalty Trust, and Asian stock fund and a favorite stock from the good old bull days that has been hammered back down to a reasonable valuation, I personally believe this is just a cycle of bullishness created by unsustainable bearish sentiment. I am not an investor in most things, although some pretty smart people do perceive bargains for the long term. I remain an 'investor' in only one thing; quality miners of gold. But even there I may get a little cute with some trading, but not too cute.
As such, here is the HUI once again, due for a pullback to refresh but healthy in so many ways that a pullback to 200-210 might be viewed as a nice buying op (although we cannot rule out a mere retest of the 225 visual support) by like-minded investors or traders. Of course, most of the world is sidelines worshipping their cash just like they are supposed to be.
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Inverted head and shoulders, flirting with a break of the neck line, RSI and MACD healthy and now AROON daily trend w/ confirming Wm%R. I am basically locked and loaded, but as I look for a few new opportunities, this is the type of thing I like to see.
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
In our little corner we will stick to the 'gold may decline in a deflation impulse but will do so much less than stuff that is positively correlated to economies and human hopes for prosperity' line.
Yes, I know there is a typo on the chart and I am not pleased about it but I am also too lazy to go do it again.
Edit (3:19) Then there is this bit of genius regarding some more funny munny the Fed is coughing up, this time committing to sop up all those bad mortgages and while they're at it here's a couple hundred billion for tapped out consumers to get off the hook too. Meanwhile, the gold chart plods along. It's got time.
Some, however, are worried the mounting costs of the measures, which have the potential to reach several trillion dollars, could eventually fuel a troubling inflation.
"It may mean (a) longer-run issue with inflation and inflation concerns," said John Silvia, chief economist at Wachovia Securities in Charlotte, North Carolina. "It may be too much of a good thing is a bad thing. We may be overpaying for bad assets."
Policy-makers, however, have signaled a willingness to do whatever it takes to try to tamp down the risk of a severe recession.
Well, the question now is, is that all there is? Folks are mighty punch drunk about this sector and indeed the entire world of stocks. Every time you get a hopeful spike higher it is dragged back down by the margin man, redeemers and flat out 'sissies'.
But this time Uncle Buck looks like he's losing this excuse for a fundamental underpinning (forced liquidators) and the bearish MACD looks like it is trumping the bullish looking patterns that were being flashed. We also know that even as the buck rose the forces taking it higher also took the gold-oil and gold-industrial metals ratios higher. So we know that the gold miner fundamentals are improving. All that is needed is for the herd to stop panicking. That has been my stance and at some point these pullbacks are going to morph into something more normal.
Here is GG doing the (normal?) pullback, teasing would-be suitors with a shapely bottom [pattern] and some seductive retrace possibilties. The panel indicators are very nice. Look for Wm%R to hold around -50 while AROON holds daily uptrend. That would be key.
The cautionary caveat however would be that this sector seldom - even in good times - just calmly pulls back to logical levels. There is often some measure of violence involved.
I am glad I have this well-grounded friend out there in cyber space to bounce ideas off of, and including his monthly NOBS stock research report has added great value to NFTRH. I know this because I have received value from it personally as Otto has kicked the tires of two of my favorite gold miners as they passed muster and confirmed my own views.
Anyway, I recommend this short piece on ECU Silver Mining (TSX: ECU) and I recommend keeping up with Inca Kola because you never know what nuggests of value you are going to find there.
Monday, November 24, 2008
Sunday, November 23, 2008
An email from another NFTRH subscriber who is a Wall Street long-timer and whose level of experience makes mine look silly:
Yes Gary, I spoke last night with one of the legendary street traders from the old days (pre 1990). He wants to leave Miami and work free at our shop because he has never seen a time when there is more money to be made the old fashioned way...picking off the sissies.
And then there is an unfortunate situation that someone I am close to experienced yesterday. She is selling a prime piece of property near the ocean in Maine and was in the final offer / counter-offer phase with a cash buyer and all looked good. The buyer pulled out at the last minute for reasons I paraphrase below:
I am concerned with the stock market making new lows that this is not a regular recession and we are in fact headed toward a depression. The only safe place to be right now is in cash.
Okay, everybody’s got the memo; deflationary depression it is. Well not everybody… I’ll go with the old pro’s and stick to my story that there will be recovery – borne of inflation – and there will be places to invest and places to avoid. With the entire world now expert on deflation and 1930’s history, I have got to believe we have a huge counterparty of ‘sissies’ waiting to take the other side of the trade.
I personally believe any coming stock market rebound is a trade only and things could get worse before they get better. But if I were a deflationist I would be uncomfortable with the level the major media and by extension, the public are up to speed on the concept just as I was uncomfortable with every Tom, Dick and Harry on board the inflation express.
Friday, November 21, 2008
Who listens to these people? I mean, some analyst actually sent out a memo to clients with valid reasons? I would imagine it contained some hysteria about global deflationary blah blah blah... This is like taking candy from a baby and one day it will be seen for what it is.
By the way, I bought some oil via USO. I think today's price is a bit more favorable for a trade.
I distinctly remember the oil guru saying "oil will never again go under $100" shortly after the price began to crack...
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
T. Boone Pickens confirmed news reports Wednesday that falling energy prices have forced him to delay plans to build a massive wind farm in western Texas.
"Things have slowed down, but, no, the (turbine) order has not been canceled," the energy investor and former oil magnate said on CNBC. He said he still expects to take delivery of the project's 2,700 turbines in 2010, as originally planned, but that their installation might be "slowed down a little bit" until wind is more competitive economically.
The Associated Press also reported Wednesday that Pickens has decided to cut spending on his multimedia renewable-energy campaign to between $40 million and $50 million from an initial budget of $60 million, due to the falling price of oil.
Pickens, chief executive of Dallas-based hedge fund BP Capital, told CNBC the firm remains entirely in cash, as it has been since July, and doesn't plan to return to equity investing anytime soon. "Patience is what we're practicing. We think it's going to get worse, and there will be better opportunities," he said. The fund is down 62% since June.
"We're in a global recession," said Pickens, who believes a bottom in oil prices is near. He had predicted a price of $150 a barrel last summer, only to see a retreat after $147. "Within a year from now, we'll be back above $100 a barrel."
Futures of light sweet crude were trading Wednesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange at $56.91 a barrel, a 21-month low.
Look, can stocks go lower? Yup, the herd is very powerful in its frenzied fear. Am I bullish? Yup.
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Editor’s Note: On Nov. 19, 2008, the U.S. Labor Department reported a 1 percent drop in the consumer price index for October 2008. The drop marked the largest decline in 61 years, and it was the first decline in that measure in nearly a quarter of a century. The 1 percent drop was twice as large as many mainstream analysts had forecast. Such a large decline in consumer prices is forcing U.S. policymakers to rethink the possibility of deflation in America. For more on deflation, we turn to Robert Prechter, the man who literally wrote a book on how to survive it. The following article, adapted from Prechter’s book Conquer the Crash – You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression, will help you understand exactly what to expect from deflation.
In addition to this article, visit Elliott Wave International to download the free 8-page report, Inflation vs. Deflation. It contains details on which threat you should prepare for and steps you can take to protect your money.
By Robert Prechter, CMT
Before explaining the price effects of inflation and deflation, we must define the terms inflation, deflation, money, credit and debt.
Webster's says, "Inflation is an increase in the volume of money and credit relative to available goods," and "Deflation is a contraction in the volume of money and credit relative to available goods."
Money is a socially accepted medium of exchange, value storage and final payment. A specified amount of that medium also serves as a unit of account.
According to its two financial definitions, credit may be summarized as a right to access money. Credit can be held by the owner of the money, in the form of a warehouse receipt for a money deposit, which today is a checking account at a bank. Credit can also be transferred by the owner or by the owner's custodial institution to a borrower in exchange for a fee or fees – called interest – as specified in a repayment contract called a bond, note, bill or just plain IOU, which is debt. In today's economy, most credit is lent, so people often use the terms "credit" and "debt" interchangeably, as money lent by one entity is simultaneously money borrowed by another.
When the volume of money and credit rises relative to the volume of goods available, the relative value of each unit of money falls, making prices for goods generally rise. When the volume of money and credit falls relative to the volume of goods available, the relative value of each unit of money rises, making prices of goods generally fall. Though many people find it difficult to do, the proper way to conceive of these changes is that the value of units of money are rising and falling, not the values of goods.
The most common misunderstanding about inflation and deflation – echoed even by some renowned economists – is the idea that inflation is rising prices and deflation is falling prices. General price changes, though, are simply effects of inflation and deflation.
The price effects of inflation can occur in goods, which most people recognize as relating to inflation, or in investment assets, which people do not generally recognize as relating to inflation. The inflation of the 1970s induced dramatic price rises in gold, silver and commodities. The inflation of the 1980s and 1990s induced dramatic price rises in stock certificates and real estate. This difference in effect is due to differences in the social psychology that accompanies inflation and disinflation, respectively.
The price effects of deflation are simpler. They tend to occur across the board, in goods and investment assets simultaneously.
For more information on deflation and inflation, including money-saving steps for protecting your wealth, download Elliott Wave International’s free 8-page report, Inflation vs. Deflation.
Robert Prechter, Certified Market Technician, is the founder and CEO of Elliott Wave International, author of Wall Street best-sellers Conquer the Crash and Elliott Wave Principle and editor of The Elliott Wave Theorist monthly market letter since 1979.
Are they sustainable? Is the USD sustainable? Well, in a way I hope so because a strong USD helps me buy 'cheap' oil and gasoline. It also sends gold miner product to cost input ratios ever higher. But the funny thing is that the miners are caught in the panic of a stock market that appears destined to test the 2002/2003 bottom (see Domed House which I have left on the front page of the website as a reminder because it is still active). There is a lot of noise and hysteria flying around out there. I remain extremely bullish on the gold sector, especially the fundamentally sound producers, both large and small. Short term 'price' is a product of emotion, redemption and margin.
These charts will have a lot to say about the short term negative 'price' potential of markets, ironically including the gold miners, which benefit from their upward climb. The Q4 2008 panic is clearing the way for something, whether new bull markets all around or more likely, a strong rally in most stuff and a baby bull in one counter-cyclical sector.
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
All along I awaited the deflation 'impulse' or 'scare' and never did I imagine it would be quite this bad. But again I will tell you it IS scary and we DO need to protect ourselves from (and take advantage of - we heat by oil) price destruction in the heat of the event, but nothing has changed. One day the hysteria is going to be looked back upon as the opportunity of a lifetime. I am not talking about an opportunity to get rich. I am talking about an opportunity to protect oneself from ongoing, intensifying and systemic inflation.
Thanks again to Otto Rock for the Nouriel fright mask.
Note to subscribers: A break (and hold) of that downtrend line would also negate the symmetrical triangle (continuation) pattern noted in last night's update. That would be a err, good thing. I would not recommend heroics until such time.
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
So, I hate that I even have to look at things like TED, LIBOR and money supply because all they indicate is that we may get another kick at the inflationary can one day in the future and the ultimate moral hazard that is sure to come with it. That said, TED & LIBOR both continue to indicate that the acute phase of this panic is over. That does not mean 'prices' will not continue to decline in the short term because markets - carrying the hopes, dreams, nightmares and emotional actions of millions - will do what they will do. But Teddy Libor is getting himself under control.
Watch the US Dollar. As noted in NFTRH, it has a potential technical target of 92-93 based on patterns, but weakening momentum indicators that could imply it is double topping here and now. As goes Uncle Buck, so will the global anti-buck trade go inversely.
|The price difference between three-month futures contracts for U.S. Treasuries and three-month contracts for Eurodollars having identical expiration months.|
|The Ted spread can be used as an indicator of credit risk. This is because U.S. T-bills are considered risk free while the rate associated with the Eurodollar futures is thought to reflect the credit ratings of corporate borrowers. As the Ted spread increases, default risk is considered to be increasing, and investors will have a preference for safe investments. As the spread decreases, the default risk is considered to be decreasing.|
Monday, November 17, 2008
Wash, rinse, repeat. NFTRH8 out now and here is its opening piece: Fast Forward.
Friday, November 14, 2008
Yesterday the entire vessel had a fear filled plunge to new intra-day lows and reversal - on volume to close above the previous day's highs. We all know this is bullish, but with the ferocity of this margin and forced liquidation stoked bear, we reserve just a kernel of doubt until the resistance levels shown on the charts are exceeded, now don't we? We also reserve some cash. I added to positions yesterday during the down, am locked and loaded for the up but not overly confident, which is how it should be during the making of a bottom.
Incidentally, regarding the HUI... it hammered at support vs. gold (bullish) and it is also relatively strong vs. the broad market in that it made a nice reversal up from support and never threatened the lows of 150.27. That is a bullish divergence for the miners vs. most other markets. Exceptions being the oil and gas stocks and a few others. Look for relative strength at the bottom as that is where the leadership of any coming rally will be.
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Pardon me while I do a bit of promo work here. After they age a week or two, I post the NFTRH reports over on the main website because I want you to see how the letter operated under historically difficult (and interesting) circumstances. I will also eventually post a bunch of the email updates, but here is one that subscribers got this morning. As usual, I predicted nothing, but gave some parameters that have been attained. USD symmetrical triangle was first ID'd last week before it became clear to every trader on the planet, thus reducing its potency. If indeed the buck is double topping instead, this is why we use the 'panel' indicators as confirmation of such patterns. HUI chart (not posted here) working like a charm and the broad market certainly did give a "strong thrust higher with a close above the previous day's highs" and it did it on volume. Now, dat's a reversal.
Also in the video, Adam sees a very bearish Nasdaq and oil declining further. Here are three fundamental points he makes as well:
* Number one: The trend in most all stocks is down. This trend is likely to persist and last longer than most people imagine.
* Number two: There is no plan. The government is floundering and does not have a plan that is going to work anytime soon.
* Number three: We have a lame-duck president, and nothing is going to happen of any consequence until President-elect Obama is sworn in.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
I cannot micro manage the disturbing things going on in the political, economic and financial big pictures. I will not yell at you "THE WORLD IS ENDING - GO BUY GOLD!!!" I will simply keep on trading and/or investing as long as the lights are on and try to preserve capital and make profits. As such, I remain focused on these ratios and the gold miners. This is the Hoye model and that dood has studied history. All the misperceptions flying around the media right now are simply noise. There is nothing really new under the sun. By the way, Mr. Hoye's Pivotal Events excerpt (published) and Howe Street radio interview (linked) are found here weekly. I never miss either.
In the simplest sense, gold miners are companies. Those of interest here are public companies. The stocks of these companies are punished for operational underperformance and rewarded for operational achievement. The ratios represent the companies' product measured in their operational costs. The product has attained major outperformance vs. the costs. Bottom lines stand to gain while most everything else (of positive economic correlation) remains under pressure. Last I checked, the stock market rewards performance - eventually.
Monday, November 10, 2008
The chart shows Huey's correlation with the S&500 quite well. I believe that the broad market is bottoming however so what's the problem? Well, no real problem other than my stance for real gains in the gold miners is based on their counter-cyclicality. It is fine if they rally and perhaps even lead when all markets bottom out. But the true test of the miner stance will come after any coming major hope rally peters itself out.
Notice on the chart I have shown Trixy in the lower panel. It has been a long while since I have been able to use this slower indicator, but when it triggers up like this, it can be a nice confirmation to MACD. This does not preclude a test of the lows to levels shown on last week's email update however.
Sunday, November 9, 2008
Let's see... oh the possibilities. Here's one; how about the government takes over our private accounts for our own good - benevolent big brother that it is - and for our own good puts us en mass into US Treasuries, especially those highly valued long-dated ones. Mmmmm, thanks bro!! You protect me for my own good and I get to help bail out your effin' macro mess buy buying your debt. Mmmmm, good. Wonder if all the boyz who parachuted with millions will be called back to do their part?
Oh and gold bugs? You could be next, except that it won't be couched as being for your own good. You'll likely be demonized as hoarders during national crisis. One might review the idea of owning yellow stuff in the US.
Okay, one would like to think this is so outrageous that it must simply be some blogger going into hysterics first and coldly thinking about it second. That may be so. But I have been aware of this scenario for four plus years since my 'guru' first proposed it to me. He in fact demanded I liquidate IRA's, "pay the #@%!'n taxes" and be done with it. I have indeed partially undertaken this tact and now, will consider going all the way. It worked out well because the liquidated funds were used for something of great value to us in our private lives and it was done before the market meltdown, which allowed us to keep most of our gains from the inflation bull (2003-2007 RIP).
I often advocate owning treasuries, but I only talk about bills or short term bonds and even then it is never an investment. Just short term safe cash equivalents. Just to be clear, I wouldn't touch a long term government bond even if I was wearing a radioactivity rated hazmat suit.
Dems Target Private Retirement Accounts
Democratic leaders in the U.S. House discuss confiscating 401(k)s, IRAs
November 04, 2008
RALEIGH — Democrats in the U.S. House have been conducting hearings on proposals to confiscate workers’ personal retirement accounts — including 401(k)s and IRAs — and convert them to accounts managed by the Social Security Administration.
Friday, November 7, 2008
In the upper left cell a little blurb will appear weekly to give a tickler about the content of the letter. For example, this week we are going to look at the would-be transition from deflation fear to inflationary reality along with the USD's (extremely interesting) technical status and a NOBS research report on Jaguar Mining (JAG), one of my preferred junior gold producers.
I believe that the acute phase of panic is ending but mis-perceptions are still rampant (as an example, there remain too many Dollar bears) and the process of washing out hope, even among the gold stock holders, will be a grind.
Have a nice weekend.
Thursday, November 6, 2008
There are experts on deflation cropping up everywhere and suddenly everybody knows who Nouriel Roubini is. Meanwhile, the banks are easing their stance and global forces pump to beat the band. We will not exit the deflation fear stage easily or without aftershocks, but everything is falling into place for the next inflation cycle.
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Mr. Swenlin writes near the end of the article that after not predicting deflation "I was not thinking clearly (at all?)" and I will take that as yet another sign of how pervasive the deflation mindset has become. This does not mean we will have a quick exit from the deflating fear, but it certainly is a prerequisite to the next round of more severe inflation. Meanwhile, gold has still not hit my target zone of 600-650, and my own chart is not bullish either. Especially since we just had our first monthly close below the EMA 18.
"Finally, the quarter just ended represents, in our view, the high water mark for costs in our industry and improvements in costs should begin to show as this year comes to an end," Mr. Marrone continued. "We are beginning to see significant decline in the cost of fuel, with oil at current levels, consumables and other products. The appreciation of the United States Dollar against local currencies, particularly the currencies in Brazil (approximately 26 per cent from the third quarter) and Chile (up 30 per cent from the third quarter), should further assist our cost structure."
Neither major candidate has a clue about economics, but at least Mr. Obama has hung around with Paul Volcker and may surround himself with competent people. In fact, why don't we start a viral internet campaign to try to get David Walker into the new administration?
TO BE a conservative in Massachusetts is to know disappointment, never more so than on Election Day, when candidates and causes of the right rarely stand a chance. Waiting in line at my Brookline polling place yesterday, I was under no illusion that my vote would change the outcome: Barney Frank would be reelected to the US House, John Kerry would go back to the Senate, and Massachusetts would vote decisively for Barack Obama.
But even for a red voter in the bluest of states, Election 2008 has its consolations:
The Clintons really won't be going back to the White House.
We haven't seen the last of Sarah Palin, who demonstrated star power as she withstood with aplomb and good humor a vicious assault from the left.
Government financing of political campaigns, always a dreadful idea, is dead. Yes, Obama egregiously broke his solemn promise to accept public financing and its attendant spending limits. But having witnessed Obama's astonishing financial blowout - he raised well over $600 million - no future candidate will agree to be shackled by those limits.
A turn in the wilderness will do Republicans good. During the GOP's years in power, the onetime party of fiscal sobriety and limited government turned into a gang of reckless spenders and government aggrandizers. Perhaps a few years in exile will lead Republicans back to their conservative, Reaganite roots.
But the most lustrous silver lining of all is the racial one. As a politician and policymaker, Obama distresses me; his extreme liberalism is not what the nation needs. But as a symbol - a son of Africa elected to lead a majority-white nation that once enslaved Africans and treated their descendants with great cruelty - Obama's rise makes me proud of my country. The anthem of the Civil Rights Movement was "We Shall Overcome." Impossible as it might have seemed scant decades ago, we have.
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
From that first little "glimmer of hope" indicated by the LIBOR chart posted in NFTRH4 right on through to NFTRH6's look at the gold-silver ratio and VIX charts this past weekend, it is evident why we need to watch these macro indicators when looking for turns in events.
Here are the 'anxiety' indicators, looking very similar as noted in NFTRH6. MACD double topped and turning down was a clue as to trend change coming. And as if by magic, most markets (other than USD) have launched in response.
I will have NFTRH5 available on the subscribe page soon and eventually, NFTRH6 as well because I feel it is important for readers evaluate the letter under the most extreme circumstances. We all look good when things are going well, don't we?
Deflation as properly defined means a shrinking money supply. Inflation is its opposite. The one tends to create falling prices (and thus encourage bankruptcy and job losses) while the other is always and everywhere followed by a rise in the cost of living (but without stronger business necessarily hiring new staff).
So place your bets now. Because whether you're a gambler or not, the Fed's massive monetary inflation – both in loans to banks and brokers, as well as in notes and coins – is going to force your hand.
Come November, we note a distinct flattening out of emotion and in fact the Wall Street machine and its propaganda arm, the major financial media are beginning to promote the bargains out there. In the big picture I tend to agree with the pitch men; one day the October levels will look like a bargain. But this is subject to the economy which is decelerating alarmingly (per yesterday's ISM data) as are most corporations' businesses. We are still at the point where it is not yet conclusive that the grand wizard's funny munny operations will even take (deflationists coming out of the woodwork).
Which brings us to the only sector I am bullish on in the contraction; the gold miners. Once again (as there always seems to be confusion on this) I am not necessarily bullish on the 'price' of gold. Nor do I need to be. All I need is to be bullish on the price of gold measured in gold mining cost inputs to be bullish on the gold miner sector. Dig? Ironically, it would probably take a rally in positively correlated commodities (esp. silver outperforming gold) to rally the gold miners. Misperceptions and all.
This chart of HUI, with all its potential retrace levels and other busy stuff going on, has had one major bullish divergence throughout the panic of October and in fact all the way back to July; the gold-oil ratio (along with other cost input ratios) has been fueling near future gold mining bottom lines even as nominal stock prices have simply been obliterated. I have shown some logical retrace levels and near term resistance, but while I have done a bit of trading off the [current] bottom, I remain fundamentally engaged and holding more than a core. I love that nearly invisible bullish divergence in what should be among the first movers in any new inflation cycle.
Monday, November 3, 2008
(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector failed to grow in October for the third consecutive month, and the overall economy concluded 83 consecutive months of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.
The report was issued today by Norbert J. Ore, C.P.M., chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The PMI indicates a significantly faster rate of decline in manufacturing when comparing October to September. It appears that manufacturing is experiencing significant demand destruction as a result of recent events, with members indicating challenges associated with the financial crisis, interruptions from the Gulf hurricane, and the lagging impact from higher oil prices. This is the lowest level for the PMI since September 1982 when it registered 38.8 percent. In this report, we see inflationary pressures dissolving as the Prices Index fell to 37 percent, the lowest since December 2001 when it registered 33.2 percent. Export orders also contracted for the first time following 70 months of growth."
PERFORMANCE BY INDUSTRY
The two industries reporting growth in October — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. The industries reporting contraction in October are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Wood Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Furniture & Related Products; Textile Mills; Machinery; Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; Printing & Related Support Activities; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Electrical Equipment, Appliances, & Components; Paper Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Chemical Products.
WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING ...
- "Credit market causing suppliers to run closer on terms." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
- "Appear to be bouncing along the bottom — volume is good but pricing is tough." (Primary Metals)
- "Although the volume was down compared to last month, the volume was still higher than last year at the same time." (Chemical Products)
- "Hurricane in Houston disrupted production for 10 days at our plant." (Fabricated Metal Products)
- "Delivery issues continue across our range of purchased commodities as suppliers trim inventory commitments." (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)
|MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE |
|Supplier Deliveries||49.2||52.5||-3.3||Faster||From Slowing||1|
|Customers' Inventories||55.0||53.5||+1.5||Too High||Faster||3|
|Backlog of Orders||29.5||35.0||-5.5||Contracting||Faster||6|
|OVERALL ECONOMY||Contracting||From Growing||1|
This is by no means suggesting we are out of the woods on all fronts. Rather, the suggestion is that the acute phase of the panic is ending and things can begin to function a bit more normally now that the extreme liquidation pressure appears to be easing.