"As a technician, I feel that there are few analysts that offer value for me, but you do. Your work on Gold ratios has helped my analysis greatly." --Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT (The Daily Gold) 4.9.10

Friday, January 2, 2009

Another indicator turning... Gold-Oil

The USD topped out and dumped from a topping pattern after it violated the EMA 20 we were watching. The VIX has long since double topped and dropped.

This left the gold-oil, gold-industrial metals (GYX) and gold-silver ratios still holding out as indicators of fear and loathing among the herd. Using GLD-USO as a proxy, we see gold-oil starting to break and I assume gold-GYX is doing the same. Gold-silver looks toppy as well amid bearish divergence.

This would argue for a stance whereby the fundamentally superior gold miners take a back seat for a while as other positively correlated (to the economy and human hope) commodities begin to take the lead. Much more to write on this in this weekend's NFTRH.

Edit (2:53) What the heck, let's throw in another one. Here we see the long bond taking the hit. If our stance on rising commodities and stocks is correct, these people hiding in the supposed safety of this garbage are in for a serious surprise. Long bond following the same path as gold-oil and all the other indicators of an investoriat choked with fear. Do you know how many bears and just regular 'I'm sick of the market' people are hiding out in these long treasuries? I don't either but it's a lot of them and it looks like they be on the wrong side.