"As a technician, I feel that there are few analysts that offer value for me, but you do. Your work on Gold ratios has helped my analysis greatly." --Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT (The Daily Gold) 4.9.10

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Good news, bad news

Well, mostly bad news.

The bullish plan endured the decline to test the moving averages, X. Then it considered the VIX breakout posture, XX. Strike 3 came in the form of the EMA 20 on the CBOE put/call ratio, XXX.

Now where do we go from here? The bad news is that with the SMA 50 and EMA 20 now in the rear view mirror on most major markets a test of, if not a decline through the November lows comes into view. I do not like the structure of the EMA 20 on the $CPC as it implies no bottom is imminent. The market is running out of time to prove this a false breakdown, goons playing w/ options expiry event.

When that bottom does finally arrive, maybe just maybe we can begin thinking about hammering out the major bottom (over the course of many months) that will usher in a new - and inflation fueled - bull in certain sectors.