"As a technician, I feel that there are few analysts that offer value for me, but you do. Your work on Gold ratios has helped my analysis greatly." --Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT (The Daily Gold) 4.9.10

Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Bulls' shelf life limited

At this point there is scant evidence that the next leg down can be avoided in broad global markets in the short term, but if it is, it will be accompanied by a still declining gold-silver ratio. The problem for bulls is that they have gone nowhere even while the GSR has come way off its panic highs and in fact is a good amount of the way towards target. The GSR turning back up will signal the next round of liquidation, the next stock market leg lower and most likely some issues for the gold stocks as gold declines but again does so less than everything else.

The GSR is in alignment with our gold miner upside targets that we have been following in NFTRH since November so, it's all good. I personally look forward to a real buying opportunity in gold and gold miners as a result of the next liquidation. There is only one bull market out there that I can see.

Anyway, here is the chart of GSR that shows bulls' near term chances to remain on life support in conjunction with gold miner and silver's chances of upside blow offs (while gold merely tests its highs). Ominously, the VIX is creeping out of the wedge (shown last weekend in NFTRH20) and this must be reversed immediately. This is a very difficult time for most people and at some point I expect the gold bugs to get dinged as well. The difference is that gold and gold miners would likely provide a great buying opportunity while the rest of this mess sorely underperforms.