But here is a summary... I think gold is going down and have thought this for a while now. Why? Well, because it is Hope '09 of course. Gold, USD and t-bills benefited from the fearful during Armageddon '08 and now they must be adjusted. Action and reaction. I (and NFTRH) have been leaning bullish on the global stock markets and commodities for a while now, especially into the beginning of March when it looked like it was all over for bully. I bought things like China, copper miners, alternative energy and other formerly over played bull favorites. Many of these are gone from the portfolios now although I still hold general commodities and agriculture ETF's and a commodity royalty company. Also, the Natural gas fund UNG was added the other day on silly downside (a long term look at Natty will be included in NFTRH27).
I may even be thinking investment on one or two of these things but in general, this is all a reset. Gold needed to go down. USD needed to go down. The ship of fools needed to float higher, leaving the remorseful sellers in pain (but hopefully sticking to their guns and not chasing). Anyway, the gold daily and weekly make some sense and tell a story together. But gold is not about price, it is about what Bueller?
As for the charts, the daily shows a downside target if the current support breaks. The weekly shows an interesting prospect of an ascending triangle. A second downside reaction is needed to the lower line, but a drop to that level and reversal would be bullish - for those with patience anyway. Note that I am not predicting anything here, just presenting some possibilities to be aware of. For all I actually know, gold could hold the noted weekly moving averages and run to new highs.
Thus ends micromanagement mode for the metal and it is back to the miners which, despite their fundamentals would get hit if the downside potential is expressed in gold. That would be noise on the way to higher levels in my opinion. That is of course another area that NFTRH27 is going to look at in detail.
Edit (8:05) I just came upon this excellent piece by Jordan Roy-Byrne: A Look at Gold Sentiment. I joke around a bit and really do not look to manage every twist and turn of the metal. But there are those who do, and some of them do it very well.
