We have been following the dollar each week in NFTRH as the weekly chart remains bearish and I have been looking for a decline to the daily SMA 200, which would just be a reaction down to the lower line of a potential rising wedge, as the dollar grinds higher over the months ahead.That is still the scenario I am operating under, because the weekly chart is more compelling beyond the next few days than the daily shown here. But the daily chart and current market events force us to redraw the lower line in an exercise of 'what if?'.
The current events I am talking about are things like yesterday's top call on copper by a major financial media outlet claiming copper can back currencies, stories beginning to filter through the noise with the predictable 'worst is over' patina to them, and of course stories beginning to surface that gold is headed to below 700. This, even as the CoT makes a move toward bullish. Let's see what this week's release has to say there. Meanwhile, I still hold the DZZ 2X gold short. But, I suspect, not for long.
Our script is playing out so far and if the script remains on track some pretty big changes are coming before too long. That includes the dollar, which is resisted here by the SMA 50 and should be supported by the SMA 200.
