"As a technician, I feel that there are few analysts that offer value for me, but you do. Your work on Gold ratios has helped my analysis greatly." --Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT (The Daily Gold) 4.9.10

Friday, May 8, 2009

USD - Don't forget about me!

Among our other caution indicators, let's not leave out dear old Uncle Buck, who we have been following all along in NFTRH. The dollar is following our script so far ('bear flag that breaks down to the SMA 200 then evaluate'). Check on item one. Just about anyway. Now comes the 'evaluate' going forward part, which NFTRH will begin doing now that the target is essentially in.

We will keep foremost in mind that policy makers' perceived ability to usher in the miracle of inflation will depend largely on their ability to devalue the dollar. This is not as sure a thing as the hyperinflationists might believe.

Dare I say that with long term treasury rates broken to the upside (hi Larry!!), policy makers might welcome a bit of errr, deflation impulse here before the sheep in US treasuries begin to think about revolution and before these rates blow the wheels off of the 'economy is recovering' bandwagon?