I think I am going to start off NFTRH36 with a segment that shows just how black and white the general financial milieu is when it comes to inflation/deflation, bullish/bearish, good/evil, etc... These are easy signposts for the public to grasp and this is where guru worship and a blind adherence to convention comes from. A person or entity makes a few good calls, becomes 'known' for something and then erects a cottage industry promoting the dogma.One thing though; to get it right over the long haul in the markets, you need to fill in the vast space between BLACK and WHITE with COLORS; colors that can hold you to a near term bearish stance while at the same time carrying bullish positions for example.
Yes, this blog and the NFTRH letter are currently very guarded in their tone and warning against going into the camp where the 'inflationistas' await to confirm your fears about oil and the 'resources' going back up (or maybe a world full of casino patrons is actually happy to see oil rise this time).
But even as I am in full risk alert mode, the NFTRH speculative portfolio continues to take good advantage while the party goes on even after a gain of 144% off the bottom (and associated risk management moves). That is because I have a fundamental foundation with the gold sector and a directive that says 'think long and hard before being all out of a real bull market'. The sad irony is that I know I will take a ding on things like FRG, KGN, AAU, TRY.to, SBB.v and several others that will probably get hit if held into the next deflation impulse episode. But then again, the sector's fundamentals will only improve once again with such an event (unlike at this moment as their fundamentals flag in relation to gold's pullback in the positively correlated stuff) and it would be a buying/adding opportunity.
So I am not all black or all white, all in or all out. I am here to make money, preserve capital and carry forward a rational plan that takes advantage of all the nuance in between black and white. Readers can consider the general themes in NFTRH and if they are in agreement, take whatever actions or non-actions they deem appropriate for the times.
Well, this little tickler went on long enough that I just may have gotten a decent amount of my point across, thereby possibly negating the need to go over it again this weekend. We'll see. Meanwhile, I have got to tell you, I am loving this market juncture as things remain aligned with the plan, summer is coming and after a very difficult year things are simply going well. I think NFTRH is finding its niche by the way. Not short term oriented, nor long term. I think that a focus on the intermediate term plays well for avoiding day trader habits while at the same time avoiding the 'invest for the long term' pablum of the previous cycle's conventional wisdom.
Edit (2:23) Okay, in keeping with the theme of a relaxing summer, I will now try to get less wordy on the blog and go back to my favorite thing, twittlin' dem charts. The words can be reserved for the newsletter.
