Thursday, June 25, 2009

US Dollar - Forsaken but not dead yet

Here is lonely Uncle Buck clinging to life above do or die support that has more important implications than the simple short term parameters shown here. The Dollar Collapse Cult (the DCC) is pounding a steady drum beat, the Fed will not even pretend to care about inflation and the commodity and resources trade grows more confident by the day.

Still, our important parameter on the dollar has not been broken and until it is, I will remain cautious, and guarded against a market downturn in the form of ultra short positions in a growing list of strategic areas, to be updated in NFTRH. Once again, I do not recommend getting short the hope fest to most people, but I do recommend patience throughout the process of grinding out what could be a turning point as certain things look to be rolling over.

As for the dollar, I have little doubt the US government would like to devalue its currency and magically reduce its debts through the miracle of inflation. The question is, will the market let it do so?

Either way, the gold miners remain the play. Deflation impulse or inflationary fears let out of the bottle... both are bullish. It's just that one may provide a lot more opportunity to get comfortably situated than the other. Either way, the dollar is intrinsically worthless and the entities that create it out of nothing are in trouble. Desperate times, lots of confidence out there. I have little doubt that an interesting summer and fall are on deck.