Tuesday, July 21, 2009

STOP right there! Before you subscribe to NFTRH

Well, this is no way to sell a newsletter. But then again, this post is going up and will be linked near the 'subscribe' buttons going forward as a sort of check list to be reviewed by people interested, before actually subscribing. If after reading this you have any doubts whatsoever about the letter's nature but still wish to subscribe, I recommend the monthly subscription, which can be canceled at any time, as the yearly is not refundable.

I have just had a few days of intensive feedback from current NFTRH subscribers after soliciting same in NFTRH42 and in an email update this morning. While I have to say the nature of the input was very pleasing to me, there were a few issues. Most of the issues center around the following areas.

Statements in [ ] represent my effort to distill the varied comments:

  • [I like your letter and am trying to learn, but can you please write more clearly?] The way I write can be difficult to understand for some people as it can be fairly technical. Now, the pros and TA geeks tend not to want me to change at all. But there are lots of people who do not fall into those categories and they should be spoken to as well. I agree, but NFTRH also must remain what it is in essence. I will make every effort to make my writing accessible (the blog is representative of my style although the letter tones down some of the silly stuff), but this is a serious letter and there is terminology in play. If you subscribe, do not ever hesitate to contact me for any clarifications you may need.
  • [I would like more frequent email updates] There is also the issue of what to provide in email updates during the week, and what their frequency should be. Email updates will come out before or after market hours as events dictate. I feel strongly that the service not get into the areas of buy and sell signals on a daily basis because if I am doing my job (and managing my own portfolios) correctly, this would not be needed, and I will not subject subscribers to daily whipsaws. That said, every effort will be made to keep a finger on the pulse of the macro markets, which is NFTRH's charter.
  • [Your stock picks suck!] :-) This is not a stock pick letter. I manage my own portfolios and illustrate each week what I am doing and why. Individual equities are shown as is the all important cash level, which is a reflection of my 'risk management' stance at any given time. But I by no means tell subscribers what to buy. If NFTRH is getting the macro right, chances are we are all going to make money with sound 'stock picks', wherever we may find them. Please do not expect me to be your stock picker or stock signal giver! I can think of nothing less desirable to be. NFTRH currently holds several highly successful positions and has done its fair share of trading/profit taking. I also trade sometimes on a whim and because I enjoy it. There have of course been losers. It happens. I am a trader after all, as is any good portfolio manager. But I do not tout stocks. I amplify what I believe to be the best macro signposts in order to put us in a position to select the right stocks in the right sectors. In short, I show my stock holdings because people originally asked for portfolios. But I reserve the right to trade as frequently or infrequently as I wish without feeling the need to update these moves as they happen (you'll see them updated each week in the letter and in interim email updates as applicable). These are my real funds and I cannot upset the delicate zen of my trading style :-) by feeling the need to explain every micro move. I am not flexible on this.
Nobody mentioned it, but soon all the previous NFTRH will be available online (password protected) so that new subscribers will have access to the complete history of the letter's progression. Also, I will remind that sample issues are posted here for the express reason that they be reviewed thoroughly by prospective subscribers. It is your money and you need a service that is right for you. NFTRH is not for everybody.

I am asking subscribers to have a level of sophistication and to understand this is something different. If you want a stock picker or a trading guide, this is not the letter for you. If you want sincere communication from a market watcher who doesn't b/s himself, you might wish to check it out. But please consider the above before subscribing.

Now for the positive. The vast majority of subscribers who noted the above points also say they value the letter for what they do get out of it. Along with the critiques, there were many other satisfied subscribers along the lines of this gentleman. It is no coincidence that he understands the concept of personal responsibility.

Gary,

'MR' here, one of your Canadian subscribers! In short your letter is just great and provides the best market insight I have seen in many years of trying to make sense of the markets. I recall last year being on holiday and totally consumed in what the market was doing to my portfolio and future... Then I found you and you have given me the ability to make money with peace of mind. I remember you wrote something (and it changed my financial attitude) to the effect that there is a financial war out there and it is up to each of us to take ownership of our finances - more or less and you probably said it much better.

Thank you to everybody who responded and helped NFTRH's quality control department. I will continue to tweak and improve and make NFTRH a letter worthy of you.

Edit (7/22 @ 8:50) Below is the comment to subscribers included in an email update, summarizing the above. Prospective subscribers please review:

Well, my head is spinning...

Actually, after yesterday's prompt I received so much feedback that it was a bit daunting. So I went out and played some loud rock music with the band and now I feel like it is all processed. I will keep this brief:
* There will be no major changes to the letter or the service. If I think too much about what to change I will mess with the reasons most of you are here. One of the most frequent comments I get is that the letter is 'refreshing'. That is because it is me sincerely doing what I do and saying what I think. Simple.
* Still, some things can be improved, and by remaining sensitive to ALL of your feedback, I think I can incorporate improvements on the fly. Let's see how it shakes out.
* A reminder: I show my stock holdings and note my trades because I was asked to early on. You should subscribe to NFTRH for the technical macro view and for the biggest picture macro-fundamental view. Not for the picks. As I mentioned to a subscriber this morning, "if I get the [in this case, gold] sector right, we can all buy GDX and be happy". Fundamental stock guy Otto and I trade newsletters, so you know I have access to some good information. I may also consider subscribing to another fundamental research service but really, a basket of GG, AUY, GDX, AEM, KGC, etc... is not that hard to cobble together when I feel the time is right. Again, let's see how things develop going forward.
* Understand that this exercise was initiated in an effort to make sure NFTRH is improving and growing in line with the majority of subscribers' wishes. It is. Thank you again for helping.