Monday, August 24, 2009

Risk v. Reward sucks...

...but then, I have been parroting that for months now. So be it.

The VIX is in a falling wedge and trying to establish a short term uptrend. It is entirely within the bulls' greedy power to break this condition however. After all, they've got the short term tail wind of Bernanke's happy jawbone but perhaps more than that, they've got the power of inflation by policy. Da munny gots ta go somewhere!

So we remain at a critical juncture, by many indicators in a high risk environment. If the bulls pull off a new inflation cycle, we will know where to deploy. They have not officially pulled it off and set it in motion however. Not yet. We don't put it past them because we remember how so many bears used the crutch that 'the VIX stopped working' early in the last bull cycle and it could happen again. But as yet, nothing is settled.