Pssst... come 'ere. Did you hear the one about the guy who's still bullish the US dollar? Yes, he actually exists. No no, I am not including the perpetually dollar bullish Prechter and Hochberg. They are a given.But aside from them, I heard a rumor that this other guy actually exists. Fear not however Hope '09 participants; what are the odds that this lone guy would be right against an entire financial world on the other side of that trade?
Everybody from government to monetary officials are stacked against the USD. Wall Street and the financial establishment remain on the other side of this lucrative trade as they pitch their wares to the traumatized public. The gold bugs who think rising copper and oil is good for the gold sector? They're on board and indeed, leading the charge. So why worry about a dollar rebound?
Well, the dollar has done some terrible technical work on the big picture, which certainly informs NFTRH's view for 2010, but in the short term all I see is what could be interpreted as a break from a falling wedge (not shown on this chart that is already too busy), a 3rd day above the SMA 50 (for the first time on this systematic and grinding decline), RSI and MACD looking good and a technical target up there at around the SMA 200.
If we are to get a #2 leg in a mini cyclical bull (in hope), the dollar will first rise and correct this mess, and that one lonely bull would be king of the world for a short while on a short covering rally in USD. If not, AGAIG '09 (as good as it gets) will continue to terminus and our protagonist of one will join the rest of the world in staring down Bob Prechter.
