Sometimes it really helps. If only I had time to read me more often. It is funny how often I sit down on Saturday morning, begin the process of researching and putting the report together and find myself thinking "why did I do that this week?" as the analysis I must do for NFTRH gives me perspective after the noise of the prior market week.
Reviewing older material helps too, and posting that NFTRH71 sample helped me quite a bit as I just got done actually reading it - instead of skimming - and a few things strike me as kind of important. I have added observations based on today's perspective, as opposed to that of February 7.
"In concert with the prospects for the gold price, the 13 to 14 level may yet be seen. But it appears that first the market will pull in the large speculators that dumped out last week right on cue. Silver’s CoT report was very pleasing in that hedge funds and other large speculators were flushed. The expectation is that they will help buy silver back to the neckline for a trade."
We are there but somehow I am in doubt as to whether the rally will terminate obediently per the nearly 6 week old analysis. One thing for sure, the speculative holders are again getting brave and that always provides opportunity ultimately.
"Short term resistance [HUI] is at 420 at which point we could hit some turbulence as day traders take profits. STO grapples with the critical 20 level and fellow short term sensitive indicator CCI has climbed above -100, which is positive. RSI is good to go for a run at the noted level, but MACD remains the holdout. We are in an intermediate term correction and while we might expect MACD to ‘trigger’ up, its status below zero must be removed for the all clear in a bigger picture sense."
Bingo, day traders traded, Huey corrected and then took the next leg up. MACD has gone above zero on the daily, which makes me at least think about the would-be terminal upside targets.
"To summarize the precious metals complex, the probabilities are good that there will be upside follow-through based on the angst levels that were stirred up in not only the PM’s, but also in the commodity complex and broad global markets. In short, relief is due as the GSR and USD take a break. Taking a broad market view, it looks like a counter- trend rebound could manifest that will ultimately – and cruelly – suck the innocents (and crack users) back in."
I am open to revising the 'terminal rally' [on HUI] stance based on the MACD going up in all time frames. But I will tell you it is easy to be brave or bullish now. It was not so easy on 2/7. It was not so easy in October of 2008. So for now, the script still holds that I do not want to be heavily bullish along with the speculative wise guys. Screw them, they always crash and burn eventually. This is why I hold a core always, as long as I am big picture bullish; I can be less than bullish and still participate as long as the players, touts, trend followers and outright creeps want to play.
"NFTRH bear positions were trimmed Friday. This is in anticipation of a broad global market pump, and to see if we can’t let the precious metals run unrestrained for a bit. I am a nicer person with a sunnier personality when I am not short the market. Spring is coming and we can look forward to renewal; of a secondary impulse of hope that is. Then the hammer should drop once again. I would hope to again be more heavily short (and ill-tempered) at such time."
Party on Garth. I feel bright and sunny now. I just will not let that effect my trading habits. For long term success, you simply must remain apart from the herd.
"This is one of those indicators that does not say ‘a rally will happen’, but rather ‘a necessary indictor is in place that says a rally can happen’. Others include the Investors Intelligence survey of newsletter writers, the AAII survey of individual investors and the NAAIM survey of investment managers all coming strongly off of their recent hyper- bullish status.
Trend followers firmly in retreat, we can rally for a bit."
More important than ever to watch the sentiment indicators. When they double top...
"The BDI shipping index is open to a bull signal as long as a lower low from the September bottom is not registered. Copper meanwhile, is interesting in that it remains below broken support. Perhaps the most egregious mini-bubble needs more work to unwind the casino atmosphere that propelled it to unrealistic Hope ’09 highs. Oil can, and likely will rally for a while here off of support. The broad prognosis for Doctor Copper and friends is to catch a tail wind to the extent that broad global and domestic markets are able to do the same. It would likely be counter-trend, before new lows."
Yup. All making sense here in the grand casino.
Hey, thanks for bearing with me while I self-indulge.
