A friend requested thoughts on crude oil for possible inclusion in the news weekly he writes for. This is what I sent him. Guess I can write in English when I put my mind to it, although he is sure to edit. :-)
"Technically, crude oil is attempting a bounce (with the broad markets) from the bottom of an uptrend channel measured over the last year. This was probably due to happen regardless of Euro debt relief.
A supportive short term signal for crude and other commodities has been the bullish pattern that developed in the Baltic Dry Index over the last week, despite the market panic.
On a more intermediate picture, if we have a deflationary impulse - which I expect prior to the next inflationary upsurge - oil is going to decline. There is support in the 55-60 area but 35-40 is very doable as well, with strong support there.
The time frame is the balance of 2010. 6-10 months or so, after which we may expect inflationary boats to be lifted again, including and especially in things like crude oil."
