Last weekend, NFTRH (on vacation edition) noted the following among several bearish factors for stocks:"Long term treasury bonds remain in a bullish stance, titillating the deflationists and providing a non-confirmation or bearish divergence for stocks."
Today, long bond fund TLT breaks upward. For reference this updated chart shows the consolidations in the GSR and USD proxy UUP in the lower panels. All these items are liquidity barometers to one degree or another.
The market's primary job seems to be to confuse the maximum number of people as often as possible, and heading into this week there were indicators on both sides. While my intermediate term bias is very bearish, I was leaning to very short term upward activity, despite things like the bullish structure of the Gold-Silver ratio, the bearish breakdown in the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) and what was going on here, in the long bond. With a "high risk" qualifier on stocks, since this is/was nothing but a hopeful attempted bounce.
All indications are that liquidity is getting sucked out of the markets. Short of cash and short term treasuries, there are no sure bets in the very short term.
