Here's an interesting correlation

Let's look at it from the ratio of the iShares 3-7 year treasury fund (shorter end) and the iShares TLT (longer end).  The red box shown on the SPX below is where the market had been failing to get the memo about an impending downturn.

Now, with inflationary stresses threatening the long bond, the shorter funds look relatively bullish.  Not surprisingly the stock market is gaining the bid as are commodities, many of which look pretty bullish for the short term.

If nothing else, IEI-TLT has proven to be an important leading indicator at a very significant time (April, with enough time to get out before the pig tanked).  Do you think it deserves to be on radar? If that is a bottoming pattern on IEI-TLT, you do not want to be a deflationist right now.

Oh, and I am no longer short anything.  A 3rd straight (but puny) profit is booked in ZSL and pretty healthy losses booked in DXD and SDS.  Them's the breaks.  As a portfolio manager, when you start feeling pressure to buy things to offset your bearish positions, you know something is out of whack.  So I'm left with core holdings, a healthy cash level and a funny feeling gold is going to shake off the nonsense and play some catch up soon.  Really, all gold is doing is hanging around, consolidating the excess and waiting for the other stuff to play a little short term catch up aside form the big picture stuff.