It is a stellar earnings season after all, and Bloomberg did report on how the US offers a refuge from the inflation problems of much of the rest of the world. Good one, Bloomy! Pay no attention that that man behind the curtain, monetizing his own bloated, unpayable legacy debt.
So again, which is it? The happy people should hope that this is just an initial bottom before some muck and grind. Gold is doing what it did in that same scenario in 2008. So too is the SPX. If another red dot should appear however, the ship of fools is going to pancake but good. But then again, I am short the SPX, short the Nasdaq 100 and short the Russell 2k. So, like the bear commenters who used to frequent the blog last summer and fall telling me why I should not be bullish, I do not have market prices on my side yet. But I have a signal. If the signal negates I'll say "okay Gary, you screwed up very publicly again", have a laugh and move on. These are the markets.
But the idea of forward looking indicators is to look forward. Sure, you can look wrong for inconveniently long periods of time. I've been through these phases before and while they are annoying, I do not yet see a reason to change the tack. Risk is brutally high for the broad market. Unless Ben Bernanke, Tim Geithner and the president himself have had a special meeting with the ultra powerful people on Wall Street and passed some kind of stealth legislation for total control of the US stock market and the financial media that cheers it on, this will come out in the wash.
When I put on the tin hat, I see this scenario and I see my accounts lose value as the preferred precious metals sector obviously benefits from no such sponsorship. Quite the opposite, as official contempt is quite likely the sentiment there. Which is why the more direct silver hedge is in place. But then I take the foil off and realize that we are moving forward on the market's terms, not mine.
I am green on the silver and R2k shorts and red on the SPX and NDX. So be it. They will either win big or be closed out in ignominy. There is comfort in having been here before. It is not a sprint.
Time and patience. Boring concepts in a go-go bull phase, and a pretty nasty PM corrective phase for that matter. This space can rub silver advocates the wrong way, but ultimately, taking out the emotion, the Gold-Silver Ratio is nothing but an indicator. The gold standard in the world of market indicators, in the clarity of its message. http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
