Thursday, February 24, 2011

SPX: What were they saying in September?

http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com

Here is what NFTRH102 (available here as a sample for months now; a newer one should go up soon) had to say on September 19, 2010:

"Consider the Head & Shoulders top that you, I and everybody else saw on the leading index, the Nasdaq 100 invalid.  Surprised?  Now bears click their heels and hope the S&P 500 does not follow suit.  NDX did not stop at the logical 62% retracement and SPX may not either.  The NDX breakout in fact, measures to significant new highs at around 2150.  The lagging SPX would likely eek out new highs as well, under this scenario.  How is that for a destruction of the bears and a suck in of the dumb money?  Think it can’t happen?  Well, it may not happen but the setup is most definitely in place for it to happen.

SPX did more than "eek out new highs", and this got the momo's quite enthused.  It is important to ask 'what were they saying then?' with regard to the bull trend managers of today."


Speaking of today, SPX is now in a precarious position and in a lousy risk vs. reward.  Everybody sees the wedge and if we are lucky enough to continue down (probably after a struggle to maintain these levels) the herd is going to go full momo in the other direction.  Ah, but will that be THE bearish opportunity?  I am not so sure, because I have found it is better not to make decisions ahead of time.  I'll let this mess come to Papa, and state its intentions at the appropriate time.