Friday, February 11, 2011

VIX chart edited

It happens every time, bulls feel triumphant as they are being proved out by the stock market.  They want to paint those who take risk vs. reward seriously as perma bears.  I am seeing instances of this all around now.  But there is a time to be appropriately bullish, and a time to be the opposite. 

The VIX is but one indicator, and a frustrating one at that.  The commenter to the previous post says it means squat.  But the chart does not lie.  Though the VIX tends to drag on seemingly forever and challenge attention spans, we see that every time (during the chart's span) VIX was at or near the green support line it was a decidedly unfortunate time to be buying stocks. 

I got bullish in November and December of 2008, and then again in March of 2009.  Ditto for last summer after the Flash Crash hype reset market sentiment.  Now?  It is time to leave bull heroics to those feeling confident in the present situation.  But to this point, the VIX has worked plenty well.

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