Thursday, March 17, 2011

Long Bond

I believe treasury bonds were set to rise (rates decline) before the Japan tragedy, as were broad markets set to decline.  The punctuation may well have been the T bond sell out by the Bond King and the leaking threats of 'no QE3'.  Regardless, and noise aside, here is the parameter for a bullish T bond case, not to mention a bearish stock market one. Support noted.

Edit (5:51) From would-be commenter Bruce (if he figures out how to register w/ Disqus):

“Does that not look like a textbook inverted H & S bottom with a target of 126?  Also the fact that there seems to be tons of resistance at about 126, let alone the 200 MA.”

My answer:  Indeed, would agree w/ your target.  Maybe 127 for overshoot's sake.  This would argue against any kind of strong deflation impulse and boost the bullish intermediate scenario [assuming the SMA 200 holds as resistance].

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