"MFN has been knocked down quite nicely with this week's correction. I am going to add a bit to the position in the speculative portfolio and initiate one in the 'preservation' portfolio.
I like that MFN - long hyped and loved by too many in the PM arena - is a young producer of both gold and silver, given my hedging via SLV puts. I am not a silver bear, remember. ;-)
I also like that MFN has tried not disappointing shareholders of late, a tack that is opposite to their previous strategy of over promise, under deliver.
Speaking of OPUD, here is some news from PDAC, and one really hopes Mr. Baily knows what he's talking about here.
* Output in first two months of year ahead of Q4 output
* Company suggests output tracking close to its forecast
* Analysts have said that guidance is too aggressive
TORONTO, March 7 (Reuters) - Minefinders Corp has already produced more silver in the first two months of this year than in the entire fourth-quarter of 2010, the company's CEO said, suggesting that analysts' skepticism over the company's forecasts is unfounded.
Speaking at the Prospectors and Developers Conference (PDAC) in Toronto, Chief Executive Mark Bailey said the company's silver output through February had already topped the 511,544 ounces is produced in the final three months of last year.
"We'll probably ship 300,000 this month as well," Bailey said.
That output suggests the Vancouver-based company is roughly in line with its projected output of 3.3 million to 3.5 million ounces of silver for 2011. That forecast was met with raised eyebrows from analysts when it was released in late February. <^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
For more stories on PDAC convention: [ID:nN02153893] ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Mackie Research analyst Barry Allan said in a note earlier this month that Minefinders' 2011 forecasts - which include gold production of 65,000-70,000 ounces - seem "aggressive", while TD Newcrest's Steven Green forecast the company will produce just 2.6 million ounces of silver and 64,000 ounces of gold.
Minefinders produced a disappointing 1.2 million ounces of silver and 56,110 ounces of gold in 2010, as it ran into operational issues and weaker grades at its flagship Dolores mine in Mexico.
Technically, this is thus far a healthy pullback, with the EMA 70 (9.70) as a target. I am going to do the usual and add now and not worry about a few pennies. But I also remain prepared to add more SLV or other hedge protection as well as sell MFN if I sense that Mr. Baily is returning to the tried and true strategy of OPUD. Ultimately, the upside target would be 15.50 if MFN should exceed the noted resistance at 12.
Regards,
Gary"
