Monday, April 11, 2011
Gold This Morning: Bretton Woods Redux --Jon
Fretful trade overnight as the leaders either gave way or faded around 0500 this morning giving up $8 bucks in ~30 minutes. The activity was hardly broad enough to be distinctive and we view it as lifeless as the regathering of economic powerpeople this past weekend spouting Malthusian end is nigh pronouncements symbolically at the same place wise men began to carve up the world in 1944. Facts: GSR eased a full point to ~35.60 skewed by the silver trade crescendo. It's not a matter of bailing out the punch bowl but understanding the technical squeeze that for the moment has legs until such time as too many people want to exit positions in a market much smaller than gold...and yes it will probably impact gold. RSI remains more or less unchanged ~67 as is our view from last week...it is clearly positioned to retest recent overbought levels. Gold open interest rose by ~3,000 contracts last Thursday to ~515,000 absolute. COT figures were slightly disturbing as large and small specs took Twistian second helpings amply supplied by the commercials. Today: The selling or fading is a little too obvious as is the big round $1500 number ahead of us so let us set our near term markets at possible congestion in the mid $1480s.