Uncle Buck

Why is this such an interesting, and scary time?  One reason is here in America, the majority of people are trying to live paycheck to paycheck (those that are working) and the payment for their toil is denominated in a currency that is being sacrificed so that financial institutions may remain whole, speculators may speculate and generally the wealthiest classes may continue feasting as if the system never really did fall apart.

Somebody's got to pay, and it may as well be the least sophisticated and least powerful.  I hear anecdotally that the US is increasingly looked upon as a joke by other nations, as it continues to act as if it has preeminence in the financial world.  Well, officially I suppose it does as keeper of the reserve currency, but things are changing and a good segment of the world is slowly trying to de-leverage from the US and its currency.

Problem is, US dollars are everywhere.  How does the world square its books if the dollar fails current support and then makes new lows?  It is going to be interesting, and not just here in the US.

Alternatively, the contrarian play could hatch at any time - again.  This is the play where the debt riddled, greed ravaged Uncle Buck once again bursts higher in a short covering, deflation (pretense) extravaganza.  I am usually among those to support the contrarian view, but until the shorter term charts give me something, I am not going to take that trade.

The USD big picture monthly chart sucks, which does not mean it will not turn and burn higher.  It just means that the chart stinks and as it stands now, indicates a good chance of a nasty downside event, the likes of which the dollar has been hinting at since the era of Inflation onDemand began in and around 2001.


http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com