Excerpts from Bernanke via MarketWatch
On why the recovery has been slow: “ Historically, recessions have typically sowed the seeds of their own recoveries as reduced spending on investment, housing, and consumer durables generates pent-up demand. As the business cycle bottoms out and confidence returns, this pent-up demand, often augmented by the effects of stimulative monetary and fiscal policies, is met through increased production and hiring. Increased production in turn boosts business revenues and household incomes and provides further impetus to business and household spending. Improving income prospects and balance sheets also make households and businesses more creditworthy, and financial institutions become more willing to lend. Normally, these developments create a virtuous circle of rising incomes and profits, more supportive financial and credit conditions, and lower uncertainty, allowing the process of recovery to develop momentum.
These restorative forces are at work today, and they will continue to promote recovery over time. Unfortunately, the recession, besides being extraordinarily severe as well as global in scope, was also unusual in being associated with both a very deep slump in the housing market and a historic financial crisis. These two features of the downturn, individually and in combination, have acted to slow the natural recovery process.”
And increased prices of valuable resources and services due to these 'stimulative' policies.
On what actions the Fed could take: “ In addition to refining our forward guidance, the Federal Reserve has a range of tools that could be used to provide additional monetary stimulus. We discussed the relative merits and costs of such tools at our August meeting. We will continue to consider those and other pertinent issues, including of course economic and financial developments, at our meeting in September, which has been scheduled for two days (the 20th and the 21st) instead of one to allow a fuller discussion. The Committee will continue to assess the economic outlook in light of incoming information and is prepared to employ its tools as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.”
In other words, you don't get your candy today because the milieu of the moment demands that I hold firm for a while yet. I mean really, would my 'tools' not work much better if unveiled without these cameras in my face and play by play announcers ready to parse every word for crack addicted market players the world over?
On the long-term potential of the U.S. economy: “This economic healing will take a while, and there may be setbacks along the way. Moreover, we will need to remain alert to risks to the recovery, including financial risks. However, with one possible exception on which I will elaborate in a moment, the healing process should not leave major scars. Notwithstanding the trauma of the crisis and the recession, the U.S. economy remains the largest in the world, with a highly diverse mix of industries and a degree of international competitiveness that, if anything, has improved in recent years. Our economy retains its traditional advantages of a strong market orientation, a robust entrepreneurial culture, and flexible capital and labor markets. And our country remains a technological leader, with many of the world’s leading research universities and the highest spending on research and development of any nation.”
"Economic healing" I like that one. Err, "economic healing?", wow. How do you heal from decapitation? If any 'major scars' develop? Like the next time corporate titans like AIG try to seek out their intrinsic value of ZERO? Here the god of finance prepareth us for future policy. We are America and we do not do major scars so well. The rest is robo drivel heard a million times over. So why Ben do you not just commit to let the natural cycles do their thing and stop meddling in the economy? I mean, "the US economy remains the largest in the world, with a highly diverse mix of industries and a degree of..." blah blah blah. Why not let this highly diverse economy fend for itself.
On the recent debt-ceiling negotiations: “The country would be well served by a better process for making fiscal decisions. The negotiations that took place over the summer disrupted financial markets and probably the economy as well, and similar events in the future could, over time, seriously jeopardize the willingness of investors around the world to hold U.S. financial assets or to make direct investments in jobcreating U.S. businesses. Although details would have to be negotiated, fiscal policymakers could consider developing a more effective process that sets clear and transparent budget goals, together with budget mechanisms to establish the credibility of those goals. Of course, formal budget goals and mechanisms do not replace the need for fiscal policymakers to make the difficult choices that are needed to put the country’s fiscal house in order, which means that public understanding of and support for the goals of fiscal policy are crucial.
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On why the recovery has been slow: “ Historically, recessions have typically sowed the seeds of their own recoveries as reduced spending on investment, housing, and consumer durables generates pent-up demand. As the business cycle bottoms out and confidence returns, this pent-up demand, often augmented by the effects of stimulative monetary and fiscal policies, is met through increased production and hiring. Increased production in turn boosts business revenues and household incomes and provides further impetus to business and household spending. Improving income prospects and balance sheets also make households and businesses more creditworthy, and financial institutions become more willing to lend. Normally, these developments create a virtuous circle of rising incomes and profits, more supportive financial and credit conditions, and lower uncertainty, allowing the process of recovery to develop momentum.
These restorative forces are at work today, and they will continue to promote recovery over time. Unfortunately, the recession, besides being extraordinarily severe as well as global in scope, was also unusual in being associated with both a very deep slump in the housing market and a historic financial crisis. These two features of the downturn, individually and in combination, have acted to slow the natural recovery process.”
And increased prices of valuable resources and services due to these 'stimulative' policies.
On what actions the Fed could take: “ In addition to refining our forward guidance, the Federal Reserve has a range of tools that could be used to provide additional monetary stimulus. We discussed the relative merits and costs of such tools at our August meeting. We will continue to consider those and other pertinent issues, including of course economic and financial developments, at our meeting in September, which has been scheduled for two days (the 20th and the 21st) instead of one to allow a fuller discussion. The Committee will continue to assess the economic outlook in light of incoming information and is prepared to employ its tools as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.”
In other words, you don't get your candy today because the milieu of the moment demands that I hold firm for a while yet. I mean really, would my 'tools' not work much better if unveiled without these cameras in my face and play by play announcers ready to parse every word for crack addicted market players the world over?
On the long-term potential of the U.S. economy: “This economic healing will take a while, and there may be setbacks along the way. Moreover, we will need to remain alert to risks to the recovery, including financial risks. However, with one possible exception on which I will elaborate in a moment, the healing process should not leave major scars. Notwithstanding the trauma of the crisis and the recession, the U.S. economy remains the largest in the world, with a highly diverse mix of industries and a degree of international competitiveness that, if anything, has improved in recent years. Our economy retains its traditional advantages of a strong market orientation, a robust entrepreneurial culture, and flexible capital and labor markets. And our country remains a technological leader, with many of the world’s leading research universities and the highest spending on research and development of any nation.”
"Economic healing" I like that one. Err, "economic healing?", wow. How do you heal from decapitation? If any 'major scars' develop? Like the next time corporate titans like AIG try to seek out their intrinsic value of ZERO? Here the god of finance prepareth us for future policy. We are America and we do not do major scars so well. The rest is robo drivel heard a million times over. So why Ben do you not just commit to let the natural cycles do their thing and stop meddling in the economy? I mean, "the US economy remains the largest in the world, with a highly diverse mix of industries and a degree of..." blah blah blah. Why not let this highly diverse economy fend for itself.
On the recent debt-ceiling negotiations: “The country would be well served by a better process for making fiscal decisions. The negotiations that took place over the summer disrupted financial markets and probably the economy as well, and similar events in the future could, over time, seriously jeopardize the willingness of investors around the world to hold U.S. financial assets or to make direct investments in jobcreating U.S. businesses. Although details would have to be negotiated, fiscal policymakers could consider developing a more effective process that sets clear and transparent budget goals, together with budget mechanisms to establish the credibility of those goals. Of course, formal budget goals and mechanisms do not replace the need for fiscal policymakers to make the difficult choices that are needed to put the country’s fiscal house in order, which means that public understanding of and support for the goals of fiscal policy are crucial.
Like 'don't spend what you don't have'? Or failing that, keeping debt to GDP somewhere in the realm of the real world instead of Wonderland, where anything is possible? Look dad, we appreciate the firm kick in the butt on your last statement, but the public is on balance dumb as a stump and their politicians are not much brighter. They are gonna play politics as long as the public lets them, right up until election season. The media is gonna bury people who speak with any level of maturity about what needs to be done, so I have to conclude that your words are hollow.
To be continued I guess. When's the next FOMC?
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
Follow @BiiwiiNFTRH
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