Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Gold This Morning (a cameo appearance from Jonathan)

Good to have you back - however temporarily - my friend!

Don't get excited, we are not resuming our daily comments, but I cannot resist bashing some choice comments the past couple of days from forecasters, economists, and well-subscribed market sages. Most of whom, by the way, have never met a bottom-line or walked in the gold pit at COMEX. Commodity windbag-in-chief D. Gartman said, "The public is involved in gold, and the cab drivers of the world have bought into it. Now they are being taken out, at high cost." Barron's commentators this weekend spoke of "Gold's Brief Reign" and "The price of gold could fall a third from its recent high." Ok kids, put away your crayons and coloring books and deal with facts. Open interest on the COMEX in the past 12 months has dropped from 606,000 contracts to 505,00 contracts (last Friday) while the price has risen from $1296 to $1796. By the way the nominal value of even 504,000 COMEX 'paper' contracts far exceeds the value of GLD, the ETF that all media pundits flog as the evidence of the parabolic public bubble. So let's question how a 15% drop in open paper interest on the COMEX over the past 12 months has seen the price of gold rise ~38% ....there can only be one answer and that is significant accumulation of physical gold. The same barbaric metal sold by all the clever Central Bankers and Finance Ministers for the past 10+ years. The same clever clowns responsible for credit markets and fiat currencies. Need more reinforcement? Every Friday evening under cover of darkness the CFTC releases Commitments of Traders (COT), as of the prior Tuesday close, on the panoply of commodities. For the past couple of months the gold commercial component which typically is significantly short future contracts (as in why not sell your future production at higher prices to the speculators?) has shown occasional, particularly last week (at all-time highs), short covering and increased long positions. I know, what do these gritty fast-talking miners know compared to our knowledgeable and highly educated media pundits. I rest my case. Ben Graham wrote many years a go that day-to-day the markets are a voting machine, but long-term, they are a weighing machine. Use the scales.

http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com