Thursday, August 18, 2011

Short base metals? It's Da Bom

A lot of stuff gets stuck in my filter.  This is a characteristic that my wife (among others?) finds annoying.  I just can't let some things go easily. 

For instance, here in the financial 3 ring circus there are (commodity, 'inflation') gurus that talk about "the metals" in a 'just be an inflation bull and buy copper, tin, moly gold and silver' sort of way.  It pisses me off, actually;  'The metals'?  Really?  'The metals' are a good hedge against inflation?  What about inflation's evil twin brother?  What about deflation, the opposing force against which inflation gurus ply their trade?

How about maybe you are a lazy thinker set on auto pilot and your herds lap you up until you are fatally wrong and you can then blame the entire market?  'See, everything's going down.  We all share the misery.'  Just wait it out.

Anyway, one metal is gaining the bid as not only economic contraction is in play, but existential questioning of the entire interconnected global monetary system.  In that context, 'the metals' are likely to be separated into the monetary and well, the bull humped, go-go, rah rah inflation... plays.

I don't like the look of the industrial metal complex.  And the chart of base metals 2x short BOM can be interpreted as being just above support.

As for another commodity bull superstar, the chart of WTI crude oil sucks too.  Taking it a step further, we again ponder the day the market realizes what the operational results will be of mining a product that is continually rising in an environment where costs are continually declining.  It's gonna be like printing money... real money.

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