|Edit (6:13) This is the updated chart|
Well today gold boinked the low 1620's, which has not yet updated to this chart. Funny, NFTRH165 actually gave up on 1590 as 'best' target a bit too soon as I thought 1650 was coming along with an equal chance once I noticed the daily Triangle forming.
Anyway, things are tough now. Losing money is no fun and risk needs to be managed. That for me, and as advised in my newsletter is always job #1. Not for gold itself, unless you chase it higher or you are talking about GLD or some other paper. But for most everything else, including mining speculations. So I manage risk and raise cash down to the core holdings plus a couple that are borderline core. I am a good do bee and in the Capital Preservation account cash is king, and not just money market cash; but US Treasury money market cash and T bills. Also, this account is balanced by actual things of value outside the account. Dig?
Still, with the MF Global extrapolations going around, with the government due to report its GAAP numbers this month, with Gartman's gold to 1450 and now Richard Russell's "Instructions: Be out of ALL stocks including mining stocks if you've not done so already", you tend to wonder what is actually in play and if it is indeed bearish for asset markets.
Throw into the mix that the VIX is barely budging and of course the dueling ratio indicators gold-silver and JNK-LQD and man, you have an interesting situation. The Russell and Gartman things makes me want to be bullish but my risk management - admittedly due in large part to what happened to some charts today post Fed (email update sent out about silver in particular showing a parameter and a potential target) - demands risk management until resolution.
One important chart is that in the previous post, SPX 1220.
It has been a very good 3 years out of Armageddon '08 and my first job is to keep my personal monetary haircut very limited (still around break even for 2011) and to keep my thoughts balanced for newsletter readers. My second job is to ID and confirm the clues that will be coming in the days and weeks ahead.
Yesterday and today were no fun, but having gold down here at around a long standing target gives me a sense of relief. At least the euro refugee Knee Jerks are gone. And no, I have not lost my bullishness on the precious metals in a bigger picture sense. Not by a long shot.
Later, time to go have a cup of real life and leave this mess for tomorrow.