Now, according to an emailer, Mr. Doody has replaced MFN with gold explorer RBY in his 'Top 10'. I had actually just put RBY on watch as a potential 'bottom feeder' trade for the NFTRH speculative portfolio, but the new 'BUY' call (if indeed this info is correct) gapped it up and I will not chase.
It will be interesting to see if the breakout holds, or if the gap is going to fill. These newsletter pumps (compliments of the sheep momo'ing in, not the analyst), no matter how popular the source, tend to end in heartache for those who jump in the aftermath of such calls. I'd like to add RBY, but not until it settles down. A gap fill would be great, but may not be necessary. I'd like to see RBY give back the majority of the momo though.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
Gary,
ReplyDeleteWhen are you going to give up on the gold stocks? They have been nothing but a disaster, especially the juniors. DOW off 5% from 2011 high while Venture is off 40%. If the DOW sinks to 10,000...the Venture will be off 60-70%. These newsletter writers, including Doody, have buried a lot of the goldbugs. The mania already took place when the Venture went from 700 to 2400. You are betting on this being the most brutal/epic shakeout in the history of financial markets. I bet if you put your entire portfolio in GLD from the beginning, you would be ahead more than you are now.
Anon, so how do you know I did not take care of certain things from the beginning (early last decade), before speculating? Secondly, the gold stocks have out performed the Dow in anything other than any given day trading time frame, like today for example.
ReplyDeleteTSX Venture? It is a cesspool of scams and also includes a lot of commodities/resources in which I am not interested.
Many of my smaller gold stocks, like AR.TO, BTO.TO, RIO.V, etc. are performing like champs. The TSX-V is a poor indicator for what I hold.
My portfolio is +163% from Sept. 2008 and several hundred percent from 2002, when I began managing it. How's the Dow doing?
It is dangerous to just make blanket comments and extrapolate blanket analysis.
I have never claimed to be anything but a bottom feeder, so the junior under performance is just fine with me. I like opportunity. But to each their own, and that's what makes a market.
Gary,
ReplyDeleteI wasn't bashing you. Just saying that everyone who speculates in this sector probably would have been better off buying GLD than playing the gold stocks. You said you are up 163% since the 2008 crash. GLD is up about that same amount. Imagine getting the same return without all the headaces of hedging, trading, watching the markets every second.
Anon, no bashing was perceived. I write a public blog and can take contrary opinion and criticism.
ReplyDeleteWith the way I manage risk, there are no real headaches, just increases or decreases in risk management as needed. I'll let the 'set it and forget it' perma gold bulls deal w/ the headaches.
And Anonymous, if anybody had the foresight back then (without the benefit of hindsight today you lean on with the GLD performance) then that person would of course go "all-in" with the GLD. But that is not prudent ever without your hindsight today which was not available back then.
ReplyDelete