JNK is still above support, but JNK-LQD (junk-investment grade ratio) is falling below support. Either these junk bond crazies are the ultimate smart money, knowing the [monetary] fix is in, or they are the ultimate dumb money. I'll go with the latter. Appears to me that smarter bond money is creeping towards investment grade.
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strictly from a chart's point of view Gary, everything with the exception of the miners appears to be holding up relative to the October lows.
ReplyDeleteYup, but the PM's tend to lead these events. We'll see. I think safe is best for now.
ReplyDeletePM's lead the collapse of 2008. Regardless of what anyone says, the gold stocks have been a complete disaster for those holding. GDX was higher in 2008 than it is today. Many of the individual stocks like AEM, KGC, and several others were much higher. Juniors are down 50-90% from their 2011 high. Gary, I know your portfolio is up nicely since the 2008 crash but you probably would have made more parking that money in any big cap stock like apple, google, or even the bank stocks. A pretty decent chartist that works with Bob Hoye is now saying gold could correct to as low as $1080-$1250 and still be in bull market mode. Imagine how low the HUI would go if that happened, probably back to 200 or lower. No whining here, I am mostly in cash and have some speculative money in juniors. Just wondering if there will be a mania phase in gold or is that just a pipe dream.
ReplyDeleteAnon, per #166, 1450 is now open as is 1100. This is the damaging aftermath of all that kneed jerk money that panicked into gold during the most initial phases of the euro panic.
ReplyDeleteAll I can tell you is that the gold stocks have out performed since 2008 and their fundamental backdrop is exactly opposite now to what it was leading into '08.
This is the fear and anxiety that will probably launch a massive upside in the sector. Problem is in finding the bottom first. This is opportunity IMO.
Fear is pervasive.
Gary,
ReplyDeleteThanks for your response. I guess this could be called the "wall of worry" phase. I understand the fundamentals of why one should be focused on the gold sector and I know exactly why the gold stocks did very well during the great depression. I subscribe to Hoye and that is actually how I found your blog. When looking for his site I came across yours. My gut is not always right but this time it tells me this gold bull is going to shake everyone off before the next massive leg up. McDonalds is near all time highs while many gold stocks are near multiyear lows. I guess the public is confusing that yellow mystery spread on the big macs for gold flakes.
I guess the key is to tread water, buy quality shares on dips and be patient.