Gold hit the next NFTRH target (1569) in nominal terms, and popped again vs. silver. At some point I expect gold to rise vs. silver for real but look at the silver CoT... wow. Do you think the Satanists were covering on Monday and Tuesday's reversals?
Anyway, here is gold at target and things are getting curiouser and curiouser... time be be alert and time to get this right, cause this is war. You screw up, you are dead. Off to go write now, knowing that a fringe benefit I receive from this gig is that it forces me to do the work necessary to ultimately be on the winning side... or at least the surviving side. This includes reviewing John Williams' Shadow Statistics, Jason Goepfert's Sentimentrader and anything else I can feed into my organic plan that I feel will give me a leg up.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
An informal presentation of technical analysis, market ratio analysis, psychology and macro fundamental opinion... along with whatever else is required to stay on the right side of the markets. The premium NFTRH service takes all of these and more to the next level.
"As a technician, I feel that there are few analysts that offer value for me, but you do. Your work on Gold ratios has helped my analysis greatly." --Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT (The Daily Gold) 4.9.10
Saturday, April 30, 2011
Friday, April 29, 2011
NFTRH Update: AR.to Technicals (3/21/11)
NFTRH Update (March 21st):
Daily chart attached... Argonaut Gold is in a classic Symmetrical Triangle, with a target of 6.25 if the triangle is broken to the upside and noted resistance is successfully exceeded.
Regards, Gary
I guess the target is loading on this NFTRH core holding. Updated chart:
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
Daily chart attached... Argonaut Gold is in a classic Symmetrical Triangle, with a target of 6.25 if the triangle is broken to the upside and noted resistance is successfully exceeded.
Regards, Gary
I guess the target is loading on this NFTRH core holding. Updated chart:
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
Gold & Silver CoT hot off the presses...
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
http://www.biiwii.com
GOLD - COMMODITY EXCHANGE INC. Code-088691
OPTION AND FUTURES COMBINED POSITIONS AS OF 04/26/11 |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
Long | Short |Spreads | Long | Short | Long | Short | Long | Short
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(CONTRACTS OF 100 TROY OUNCES) OPEN INTEREST: 763,754
COMMITMENTS
281,023 42,712 156,159 241,819 529,873 679,002 728,744 84,752 35,010
CHANGES FROM 04/19/11 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: -16,391)
-10,169 3,230 -11,854 7,999 -8,452 -14,024 -17,076 -2,367 685
PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADER
36.8 5.6 20.4 31.7 69.4 88.9 95.4 11.1 4.6
NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 399)
254 67 135 56 59 353 222SILVER - COMMODITY EXCHANGE INC. Code-084691
OPTION AND FUTURES COMBINED POSITIONS AS OF 04/26/11 |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
Long | Short |Spreads | Long | Short | Long | Short | Long | Short
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(CONTRACTS OF 5,000 TROY OUNCES) OPEN INTEREST: 209,275
COMMITMENTS
43,528 12,792 73,045 49,622 99,348 166,196 185,186 43,079 24,090
CHANGES FROM 04/19/11 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: -24,178)
-5,316 5,381 -14,941 -4,016 -14,910 -24,272 -24,469 94 291
PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADER
20.8 6.1 34.9 23.7 47.5 79.4 88.5 20.6 11.5
NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 205)
98 47 75 45 44 177 139
Gold nearly to NFTRH's next target...
of 1569, and notably out performing silver. What could be up with that, hmmm? Lot's, if it keeps up.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
Looking ahead to market shorting op...
This chart attempts to show how the Dow (DIA) tends to surge above short term upward trends, as shorts cover and fuel the ongoing rally. As the shorts capitulate, the pig eventually runs out of energy and flops into correction. Will it be different this time (at the 133 target), with the Dow finally taking a scary correction (or worse) right on cue with the 'sell in May (or June)' bromide?
We'll have to wait and see. But the odds are something is coming, once we get enough dumb money sucked back into the markets.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
We'll have to wait and see. But the odds are something is coming, once we get enough dumb money sucked back into the markets.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
10 Year Note... Still alive
Oh look, the 10 year bond is not dead yet. It's value proposition officially died oh, about 10+ years ago? But its price is naggingly clinging to an important parameter.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
Thursday, April 28, 2011
Rut Roh... Copper-Gold Ratio not looking bullish
You see, as the inflation-deflation debate rages and the misperceptions of both sides become alternately cemented and then smashed to bits, there is the ratio of one inflated asset (copper) to one that is simply a barometer of the monetary climate pressure (gold).
We are on a long term march toward an inflationary resolution, but the interim errr... events, can be a real bitch. They are often seen in the indicators, like this one.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
We are on a long term march toward an inflationary resolution, but the interim errr... events, can be a real bitch. They are often seen in the indicators, like this one.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
Long Bond - weekly status
While the hyper inflationists trounce the tattered d Boys and convert some of their highest priests, the long bond - denominator of the ultimate lack of value that it is - continues to look like it could reverse toward bullish.
Here we have a 'W' bottom having held at a trend line, and above support. MACD trigger up (but below zero), CCI bullish above zero and RSI dealing with resistance.
No matter if this thing rallies, buyers of treasury debt for anything other than sport - and trading gains - are playing the fool in the bigger macro picture. As the mental masturbation in the ongoing inflation-deflation debate implies, buyers of long term debt of the great inflater stand to ultimately hold the bag.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
Here we have a 'W' bottom having held at a trend line, and above support. MACD trigger up (but below zero), CCI bullish above zero and RSI dealing with resistance.
No matter if this thing rallies, buyers of treasury debt for anything other than sport - and trading gains - are playing the fool in the bigger macro picture. As the mental masturbation in the ongoing inflation-deflation debate implies, buyers of long term debt of the great inflater stand to ultimately hold the bag.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Sent to Subscribers this morning, pre-market...
Just an example of what I do besides the weekly letter. No guru like predictions, just parameters parameters parameters... oh, and contingent game plans. Needless to say, post-Fed I have plucked a few more low hanging fruits while maintaining balance, cash-wise (for now).
IMO, too many people try to impose their will on charts; make 'em say anything they want 'em to say. That is a mistake. Just as it is for a fundamental analyst to believe all of his or her own bullshit. These are stocks... and markets. You balance and manage risk, keep your head screwed on straight and just maybe you get out alive... or alive and prosperous. Maybe.
But to do this, you need perspective on all relevant time frames, including technically on this big guy here to the left. It is all well and good to state how screwed up (or great and bullish for that matter) things are over and over again, but what good is it if people are not trying to incorporate methods for using what is in play to their advantage? You end up getting gridlocked with fear, greed and whatever other stuff crops up from the overwhelmed psyche.
"For bigger picture perspective, a monthly chart of premier gold producers index HUI is attached.
Think of consolidation or downside events as fuel, in a similar way to the Gold 'Cups' shown in this week's letter provided bullish fuel for new up legs in the metal.
IMO, too many people try to impose their will on charts; make 'em say anything they want 'em to say. That is a mistake. Just as it is for a fundamental analyst to believe all of his or her own bullshit. These are stocks... and markets. You balance and manage risk, keep your head screwed on straight and just maybe you get out alive... or alive and prosperous. Maybe.
But to do this, you need perspective on all relevant time frames, including technically on this big guy here to the left. It is all well and good to state how screwed up (or great and bullish for that matter) things are over and over again, but what good is it if people are not trying to incorporate methods for using what is in play to their advantage? You end up getting gridlocked with fear, greed and whatever other stuff crops up from the overwhelmed psyche.
"For bigger picture perspective, a monthly chart of premier gold producers index HUI is attached.
Think of consolidation or downside events as fuel, in a similar way to the Gold 'Cups' shown in this week's letter provided bullish fuel for new up legs in the metal.
The monthly chart of HUI shows how the index would periodically become over bought by MACD and CCI, and then get corrected prior to new up legs. This, until finally a major downside event terminated phase 1 of the bull market in 2008.
That amazing event cleared the way for the most intense and sustained rise in the current gold stock bull market. Just as it should have.
Despite the angst of the moment, HUI monthly shows an over bought index taking a break and dealing with resistance that it has formed over the last few months, even as it is generally in bullish, all-time highs territory (blue sky).
A few notes: CCI is not to the extreme over bought that has terminated rallies into several consolidations and finally, the 2008 swan dive. MACD is and has been quite stretched, however. I am not going to consider the short term rally over until the daily chart breaks down per our parameters and we get the Fed out of the way. As a side note, if they decide to pull something rash with interest rate and QE talk (inflation expectations management), we could have an end to the rally here and now. But I have thought the Fed might do something like this at each meeting and it is generally not productive to try to out guess them, especially when they are talking out of both sides of their mouth.
The monthly chart says HUI is over bought, but maybe not critically so; not yet. It is pounding away at 575 resistance (which is ironically the area of critical DAILY support on which HUI rests this morning) and if it fails, we turn to downside management. This is where I become greedy with respect to the bull case on the gold stocks. The energy field (massive Cup that ultimately targets 888) built up from the crash of 2008 to the present should provide strong support per the noted green band, and per our long managed 475.
I have drawn the Cup a bit differently since it never really did make much of a handle before continuing higher [out] of the 'flash crash' sentiment adjustment and subsequent liquidity spigot in 2010. Perhaps Huey is going to make a handle now, working off the over bought in preparation for a massive new up leg several months down the road. Critical support is the green zone and I will probably reduce exposure to some degree if daily parameters (current levels) are lost and this scenario begins to look likely.
The good news by the way I view this (and the weekly) chart is that downside is limited by the dense support that was put in over the last few years. We are in a new stage of the bull market and it is not going to be all up all the time. I am going to hold core items and be ready to add short term if the current upside proves not yet complete, or raise cash and await intermediate buying op's if a Cup's 'Handle' begins to look likely. This would be the consolidation - with a downside bias - that would shake out enough unhealthy holders to provide some potentially explosive upside later in the year and beyond.
Regards, Gary"
Fed behind us, now on with the show...
Sorry, I was not able to try and help crash the Fed's server today in obsessive refresh mode... other commitments. Below is the pertinent text to my eye. They at least admit that some commodities are rising, they state that "inflation has picked up"... to which I say inflation picked up in 2008 and early 2009. The effects of said inflation are becoming apparent now. But then again, the general public does not know that, do they?
And with government, Wall Street and people who love to lay blame on the traditional energy industries always ready to scapegoat the oil execs, here comes this old chestnut again. Oil is another commodity rising due to too much funny munny that already came out of the spigot. Middle East unrest is a symptom of ongoing and disenfranchising global inflation.
Anyway, I am just glad to get the good and bad cops out of the way for now and get back to managing the markets.
Commodity prices have risen significantly since last summer, and concerns about global supplies of crude oil have contributed to a further increase in oil prices since the Committee met in March. Inflation has picked up in recent months, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable and measures of underlying inflation are still subdued.
And with government, Wall Street and people who love to lay blame on the traditional energy industries always ready to scapegoat the oil execs, here comes this old chestnut again. Oil is another commodity rising due to too much funny munny that already came out of the spigot. Middle East unrest is a symptom of ongoing and disenfranchising global inflation.
Anyway, I am just glad to get the good and bad cops out of the way for now and get back to managing the markets.
Commodity prices have risen significantly since last summer, and concerns about global supplies of crude oil have contributed to a further increase in oil prices since the Committee met in March. Inflation has picked up in recent months, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable and measures of underlying inflation are still subdued.
Deflationist Comes Around...
Rick Ackerman, one of the 'deflationists' on whom I keep tabs (and not in a contrarian wise guy way), has apparently had an epiphany after reading the FOFOA blog. I have not read the view-altering piece and have not read the FOFOA blog (though it has been recommended), but I look forward to doing so promptly.
Finally, a Hyperinflation Argument That Persuades --Rick Ackerman
Finally, a Hyperinflation Argument That Persuades --Rick Ackerman
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
Geithner @ Bloomberg
Geithner Says US Won't Pursue Strategy to Weaken Dollar
Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner today reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to a “strong dollar” and said the country won’t weaken the currency to gain an advantage over its trading partners.
Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner today reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to a “strong dollar” and said the country won’t weaken the currency to gain an advantage over its trading partners.
“Our policy has been and will always be, as long as at least I’m in this job, that a strong dollar is in our interest as a country,” Geithner said in remarks at the Council on Foreign Relations inNew York. “We will never embrace a strategy of trying to weaken our currency to try to gain economic advantage.”
Geithner’s comments, in response to a question about the dollar’s recent decline, show his efforts to reassure investors that the U.S. will restore long-term economic growth and stability. The Treasury chief said the U.S. must earn investor confidence “over time” and said there’s “fundamental” trust in the U.S. ability to cope.
John Snow lives!
The dollar dropped for a sixth day against the euro, matching the longest losing streak since May 2009, on speculation the Federal Reserve will consider measures to keep yields low to support the U.S. economy. The greenback also fell to almost the lowest level since August 2008 against the currencies of major U.S. trading partners.
Must be a technical thing...
Geithner’s comments today reflect an unchanged U.S. policy stance toward the dollar, said Edwin Truman, a former Federal Reserve and Treasury official who is now a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
‘Weak Dollar’
“There are people around who think that the only way the U.S. economy can recover is by having a very weak dollar and relying exclusively on exports,” Truman said in a telephone interview.
Not around here, there aren't.
Geithner was saying that “the United States is not trying to devalue its way to prosperity,” Truman said. “That’s not in the interest of the United States or the world, and wouldn’t work anyhow.”
Yeh, we know that. It never has worked as deadbeats have attempted same throughout history. Why do you think tin foil hat blogs like this one harp about this ceaselessly?
Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., said Treasuries “have little value” because of the growing U.S. debt burden, in a March note on his company’s website. He said the U.S. will experience inflation, currency devaluation and low-to-negative interest rates after accounting for consumer-price gains if it doesn’t reform its entitlement programs, he said.
He doesn't wear tin foil. He tries to protect OPM (other peoples' money - massive amounts of it) from out of control inflators.
Geithner said today that the U.S. needs a “credible strategy” to reduce its budget deficits over time, without moving too quickly and choking off economic recovery.
Wait for it...
‘Declining Path’
“You have to commit to bring the budget deficit down to a level that will put our overall debt burden on a declining path as a share of the economy,” he said. The Obama administration wants to move onto that path by about 2015, he said.
President Barack Obama has offered the outlines of a plan to reduce the debt by $4 trillion over 12 years through a combination of spending cuts and tax increases. House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan, a Wisconsin Republican, has proposed cutting spending by $6 trillion over a decade in part by privatizing Medicare and capping Medicaid spending.
It's coming; they're building up to it... wait... cue drum roll please...
Geithner also said Congress needs to act by June to raise the debt limit, saying it would be “irresponsible” and “unacceptable” not to act. “The idea that the United States would take the risk people start to believe we won’t pay our bills is a ridiculous proposition,” he said.
Ha ha ha... here it is ladies & gentlemen...
Debt Ceiling
Congress is facing a vote as early as next month on raising the $14.3 trillion debt ceiling. The Treasury Department projects that it will hit the cap on May 16, though it could use emergency measures to avoid default until about July 8.
The chairman of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee today said it would be “catastrophic” if the U.S. did not raise the limit. The advisory committee includes representatives from firms including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Bank of America Corp.
So is he saying "trust us, I know we have not squared our debts to date but if we can just raise the limit this one last time today we will gladly pay you tomorrow because we have a super new plan to manage the economy organically"? 'I'll gladly pay you on Tuesday for a hamburger today' says Timothy Whimpy Geithner.
“Any delay in making an interest or principal payment by Treasury even for a very short period of time would put the U.S. Treasury and overall financial markets in uncharted territory, and could trigger another catastrophic financial crisis,” Matthew Zames, chairman of the advisory panel, wrote in a letter to Geithner released in Washington today. Zames is a managing director at JPMorgan Chase & Co.
We have been in uncharted territory for years.
Geithner said today that oil prices have become an obstacle to growth for the U.S. economy, which is otherwise set to accelerate.
“We started the year with a little less momentum,” Geithner said.
“We’ve got some new headwinds, most prominently of course in oil,” Geithner said. “What’s happening in oil is obviously potentially very significant. At current levels, on its own, it won’t put the recovery at risk.”
And what would an MSM puff and propaganda piece be without the obligatory crude oil static. Oil is up because of the inflation policy to date. Middle East blowing up? Greedy energy companies to blame? Nah, just plain old funny munny, created out of nowhere chasing all kinds of assets around. The big question now is are we really ready to fly the straight and narrow; to go the organic route? Or will an economy that was created by will of man (and associated inflation) need more of same to keep going? Anybody willing to refuse the debt ceiling increase and find out?
TYX & SPX updated
SPX is in a stance to target 1430, yet 30 year yields look like they are making a top (which would be confirmed only with a loss of noted support). Can we have bond yields break down and yet see the market continue happily higher for a while? Alternatively, will the toppy looking yield fake out deflationists and rise with markets as inflationistas insist they must? Beats me, I am just the chart guy and as of now, yields look toppy and SPX hints at a target of 1430.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
'Facts on Silver'
Look, a couple red days are not going to turn me bearish on the PM's or silver in particular [edit: although NFTRH has laid out parameters for a change in course], for that matter. But I think it is well worth reading Bob Moriarty's piece on silver: Facts on Silver. Say what you want about Bob - I rarely read him - but he is giving some sound advice here, regardless of whether or not silver is topping at this moment.
Meanwhile, here is an excerpt from NFTRH133:
Silver Monthly (Linear) & the 35 Year Picture of Gold & Silver
Danger is everywhere; people holding too much USD or other inflated currency,
speculators coming aboard silver and commodities near the tail end of an inflationary
extravaganza, policy makers, who would be indicted for their destructive policies if silver
ends up not being in a bubble blow off… Something is either broken badly out there or
silver is going to eventually crash.
In support of the wild man is gold’s state of relative calm (he’s the stodgy old man after
all). Weighing against silver is the fact that charts like the above never sustain. The
correction, when it comes, is going to be severe. But again, the problem is in the form of
a question; ‘from what level will it come?’ and I am ill suited to provide an answer.
The monthly chart below makes the situation abundantly clear. Taking things a step
further, below that is the very big picture view of both silver and gold, going back to the
last major top as the inflation hysteria of the 70’s blew out into a new bull market in
confidence.
Do these charts make you nervous? If they do not, then I think you may have ice water in
your veins. These charts make me nervous, but as usual, we should try our best to
analyze them to gain some calming insight, if possible.
[charts omitted]
The monthly chart shows us, in a linear fashion, how impulsive the silver move has
become. The 35 year chart shows that and more; it shows silver making a catch up move
to gold (which still outperforms on this big picture) into what is likely to be some kind of
a top for the precious metals. But is it termination with a capital ‘T’ as in 1980? That is
doubtful, as gold and silver lag even ‘official’ inflation data over these decades.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
Meanwhile, here is an excerpt from NFTRH133:
Silver Monthly (Linear) & the 35 Year Picture of Gold & Silver
Danger is everywhere; people holding too much USD or other inflated currency,
speculators coming aboard silver and commodities near the tail end of an inflationary
extravaganza, policy makers, who would be indicted for their destructive policies if silver
ends up not being in a bubble blow off… Something is either broken badly out there or
silver is going to eventually crash.
In support of the wild man is gold’s state of relative calm (he’s the stodgy old man after
all). Weighing against silver is the fact that charts like the above never sustain. The
correction, when it comes, is going to be severe. But again, the problem is in the form of
a question; ‘from what level will it come?’ and I am ill suited to provide an answer.
The monthly chart below makes the situation abundantly clear. Taking things a step
further, below that is the very big picture view of both silver and gold, going back to the
last major top as the inflation hysteria of the 70’s blew out into a new bull market in
confidence.
Do these charts make you nervous? If they do not, then I think you may have ice water in
your veins. These charts make me nervous, but as usual, we should try our best to
analyze them to gain some calming insight, if possible.
[charts omitted]
The monthly chart shows us, in a linear fashion, how impulsive the silver move has
become. The 35 year chart shows that and more; it shows silver making a catch up move
to gold (which still outperforms on this big picture) into what is likely to be some kind of
a top for the precious metals. But is it termination with a capital ‘T’ as in 1980? That is
doubtful, as gold and silver lag even ‘official’ inflation data over these decades.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
Uncle Buck
Why is this such an interesting, and scary time? One reason is here in America, the majority of people are trying to live paycheck to paycheck (those that are working) and the payment for their toil is denominated in a currency that is being sacrificed so that financial institutions may remain whole, speculators may speculate and generally the wealthiest classes may continue feasting as if the system never really did fall apart.
Somebody's got to pay, and it may as well be the least sophisticated and least powerful. I hear anecdotally that the US is increasingly looked upon as a joke by other nations, as it continues to act as if it has preeminence in the financial world. Well, officially I suppose it does as keeper of the reserve currency, but things are changing and a good segment of the world is slowly trying to de-leverage from the US and its currency.
Problem is, US dollars are everywhere. How does the world square its books if the dollar fails current support and then makes new lows? It is going to be interesting, and not just here in the US.
Alternatively, the contrarian play could hatch at any time - again. This is the play where the debt riddled, greed ravaged Uncle Buck once again bursts higher in a short covering, deflation (pretense) extravaganza. I am usually among those to support the contrarian view, but until the shorter term charts give me something, I am not going to take that trade.
The USD big picture monthly chart sucks, which does not mean it will not turn and burn higher. It just means that the chart stinks and as it stands now, indicates a good chance of a nasty downside event, the likes of which the dollar has been hinting at since the era of Inflation onDemand began in and around 2001.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
Somebody's got to pay, and it may as well be the least sophisticated and least powerful. I hear anecdotally that the US is increasingly looked upon as a joke by other nations, as it continues to act as if it has preeminence in the financial world. Well, officially I suppose it does as keeper of the reserve currency, but things are changing and a good segment of the world is slowly trying to de-leverage from the US and its currency.
Problem is, US dollars are everywhere. How does the world square its books if the dollar fails current support and then makes new lows? It is going to be interesting, and not just here in the US.
Alternatively, the contrarian play could hatch at any time - again. This is the play where the debt riddled, greed ravaged Uncle Buck once again bursts higher in a short covering, deflation (pretense) extravaganza. I am usually among those to support the contrarian view, but until the shorter term charts give me something, I am not going to take that trade.
The USD big picture monthly chart sucks, which does not mean it will not turn and burn higher. It just means that the chart stinks and as it stands now, indicates a good chance of a nasty downside event, the likes of which the dollar has been hinting at since the era of Inflation onDemand began in and around 2001.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
Monday, April 25, 2011
CME Hikes Margins by 9% --Zero Hedge
Do you think this is bearish? The more these guys try to control their little world, the more disorderly it becomes. Remember the Joker? He thrived on this stuff.
CME Hikes Silver Initial & Maintenance Margins By 9%
Hilarious Zero Hedge Tweet:
'A headline you will never see: Globex ES Margin Hike Sends Stocks Plunging'
CME Hikes Silver Initial & Maintenance Margins By 9%
Hilarious Zero Hedge Tweet:
'A headline you will never see: Globex ES Margin Hike Sends Stocks Plunging'
How true, and how pathetic. I do not claim the high ground that real silver bulls do, but is it not disturbing to see these managers trying to fake people out with their manipulations? It's kind of crooked, no?
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
Some Headlines Pre-Fed
"Treasuries Advance"
"Oil Turns lower"
Add in the precious metals getting hammered and we have a nice pre-Fed adjustment that may just give the 'good cops' at the Fed something to argue in their favor.
"Oil Turns lower"
Add in the precious metals getting hammered and we have a nice pre-Fed adjustment that may just give the 'good cops' at the Fed something to argue in their favor.
SLV Fills Gap... 1 min. chart
Whoo hoo! A wild ride this morning... filling gaps are usually not a bad thing.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
And another dunk... because it never is that easy, is it?
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
And another dunk... because it never is that easy, is it?
Sunday, April 24, 2011
NFTRH133 Out Now
133 looks at silver of course, reaffirms that it cannot pretend to know what silver is going to do in the short term, but draws some conclusions none the less when comparing its daily, weekly, monthly and 35 year status to that of gold.
Crosscurrents are everywhere, because they are within the Fed (good cops & bad), the government and the public. 133 decides that technical analysis offers the best hope for staying on the right course, and that is what NFTRH shall abide by going forward.
Treasury bonds, US dollar, broad domestic and global markets... NFTRH133, a pretty good and well grounded newsletter, is out now.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
Crosscurrents are everywhere, because they are within the Fed (good cops & bad), the government and the public. 133 decides that technical analysis offers the best hope for staying on the right course, and that is what NFTRH shall abide by going forward.
Treasury bonds, US dollar, broad domestic and global markets... NFTRH133, a pretty good and well grounded newsletter, is out now.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
Thursday, April 21, 2011
Somebody is screwed...
The question is who? Institutional shorts, frightened hyperinflationsts, people who think USD is money, momentum players... who?
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
Morningstar weighs in on gold
We See Gold Going Lower in the Long Term
Then again, in the long term we are all dead, but anyway...
Did you know the 4 major factors for the rise in gold prices? Here they are according to this analysis:
1) The inception and proliferation of gold-backed, exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
2) Growing retail demand from emerging markets, particularly from China and India.
3) Central banks switching from being net sellers to net buyers of gold.
4) Miners scrambling to eliminate their gold hedge books.
1) Rationalization
2) Why then does gold outperform when these outposts blow up during market crashes like '08?
3) Why do you suppose they are net buyers?
4) Jesus, enough with the old chestnuts, already.
Gold is doing nothing. Just sitting there keeping its center while all around it is in motion. These crack heads either never seem to get it or just cannot understand the concept that not everything is a play in the casino of blinking red and green lights.
We are very far from breaking a pervasive casino mentality where price and return are worshiped at every turn. Therefore, we are nowhere near the end of the supposed bull market where all gold has to do is sit there doing nothing (offering no return) and yet the 'price of value' assigned to it keeps going up.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
Then again, in the long term we are all dead, but anyway...
Did you know the 4 major factors for the rise in gold prices? Here they are according to this analysis:
1) The inception and proliferation of gold-backed, exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
2) Growing retail demand from emerging markets, particularly from China and India.
3) Central banks switching from being net sellers to net buyers of gold.
4) Miners scrambling to eliminate their gold hedge books.
1) Rationalization
2) Why then does gold outperform when these outposts blow up during market crashes like '08?
3) Why do you suppose they are net buyers?
4) Jesus, enough with the old chestnuts, already.
Gold is doing nothing. Just sitting there keeping its center while all around it is in motion. These crack heads either never seem to get it or just cannot understand the concept that not everything is a play in the casino of blinking red and green lights.
We are very far from breaking a pervasive casino mentality where price and return are worshiped at every turn. Therefore, we are nowhere near the end of the supposed bull market where all gold has to do is sit there doing nothing (offering no return) and yet the 'price of value' assigned to it keeps going up.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
Gold Sector
Pardon me if I do not get in line with the frustrated gold stock community just yet. Let's see if important sector bellweather RGLD holds the breakout and follow the HUI's nominal technicals before joining the ranks of 'club misery' as one subscriber once described the gold sector, giving me a much needed belly laugh I might add.
RGLD chart from an email update that went out earlier in the week.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
RGLD chart from an email update that went out earlier in the week.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
Bears on the brink...
Of extinction that is. We are America and we will stop at nothing to devalue the reserve currency and diminish our debts, while asserting the global competitiveness of our mighty corporations. It's only paper after all, it's only confidence. Our actual currency, seed corn and children's future has already been eaten, digested and... you figure it out.
SPY will target 143 if a breakout happens. It is asset owners uber alles, savers be damned.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
SPY will target 143 if a breakout happens. It is asset owners uber alles, savers be damned.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
Almaden Minerals (AAU) - Buying op was registered
It is one of my most firmly held core positions. It had good news and exploded, at which point this email was issued along with chart #1.
"AAU has broken out with a flourish today. I understand that it was written about favorably by Brent Cook last weekend, but that does not explain why the jump waited until today.
I would like to add shares if it settles back in the 4.10 to 4.20 range per the support zone noted on the chart. This is due to the 'look' of the pattern, the breakout from the trend line and MACD about to go green.
AAU is a long time favorite of mine, again going back to well before NFTRH was a twinkle in my eye. It was written up previously in a dusty old NFTRH edition, the number of which I do not know. Do your own DD. I do not advise on stocks.
What I will do however, is let you know I am adding if it pulls back a bit here. Again, in the effort to refine the quality of the 'core'.
Regards, Gary"
As the correction bit hard earlier this week, AAU offered up the buying opportunity right in the 4.10 to 4.20 range and subsequently rebounded. But charts don't work they say...
Chasing gold stocks is usually not a good idea.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
"AAU has broken out with a flourish today. I understand that it was written about favorably by Brent Cook last weekend, but that does not explain why the jump waited until today.
I would like to add shares if it settles back in the 4.10 to 4.20 range per the support zone noted on the chart. This is due to the 'look' of the pattern, the breakout from the trend line and MACD about to go green.
AAU is a long time favorite of mine, again going back to well before NFTRH was a twinkle in my eye. It was written up previously in a dusty old NFTRH edition, the number of which I do not know. Do your own DD. I do not advise on stocks.
What I will do however, is let you know I am adding if it pulls back a bit here. Again, in the effort to refine the quality of the 'core'.
Regards, Gary"
As the correction bit hard earlier this week, AAU offered up the buying opportunity right in the 4.10 to 4.20 range and subsequently rebounded. But charts don't work they say...
Chasing gold stocks is usually not a good idea.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
Market Sentiment
As of last weekend this was the picture (from NFTRH132). Today's rally is in keeping with a 'rat' that alert bears may have smelled in the dumb money sentiment data.
Broad Market Sentiment
As of last week the Investors Intelligence Bull ratio at 77% was at an extreme not seen
As of last week the Investors Intelligence Bull ratio at 77% was at an extreme not seen
since the first big upward thrust out of the cyclical bear market in 2003. Newsletter
writers are generally very bullish and as usual, trend following. In contrast, the AAII
individual investors are way off their high bullish percent above 60, currently down to
42% apparently thinking that Japan marked the end of the bull. As of April 7 NAAII
investment managers were building back their courage after apparently falling for the
idea that alarming news can move markets in a fundamental way. They are now busy
managing peoples’ money back into the markets.
The bottom line is that there is nothing terminal going on here, when you consider that
The bottom line is that there is nothing terminal going on here, when you consider that
the II Bull ratio will always be red-lined bullish at major tops, but it is a case of nothing
more serious. A significant market top will happen in tandem with extremely bullish
newsletter writers, but a herd of extremely bullish newsletter writers does not mean that
the market is going to top any time soon. Just look at the 2003 extreme and what
followed over the next four years.
From a sentiment perspective, risk is not particularly high at this time, and an educated
From a sentiment perspective, risk is not particularly high at this time, and an educated
guess tells me that Japan had a lot to do with this in perhaps a similar way to last spring’s
‘flash crash’ and its launch of the huge rally that technically continues to this day.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
Checking in on Uncle Buck...
So far, minor positive divergence failing to help Unc gain peoples' confidence. But he sits on support.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
Argonaut Gold - Symmetrical Triangle Breaking
AR.to/ARNGF came my way because these guys - former execs at classy gold miner Meridian Gold before it was bought out by Yamana - bought out former NFTRH core holding, Pediment Gold.
I guess this is another one of those 'hey, look at me... genius' posts but since I do not have a PR firm, I continue to just do it myself and hope not to put peoples' noses out of joint with the touting.
We have been following the Symmetrical Triangle on AR for several weeks now, just to make sure that subscribers keep an updated technical view on this company that, while I do not recommend anything, I continue to hold as a core item in both NFTRH portfolios.
While one day does not make a breakout, so far, so good.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
I guess this is another one of those 'hey, look at me... genius' posts but since I do not have a PR firm, I continue to just do it myself and hope not to put peoples' noses out of joint with the touting.
We have been following the Symmetrical Triangle on AR for several weeks now, just to make sure that subscribers keep an updated technical view on this company that, while I do not recommend anything, I continue to hold as a core item in both NFTRH portfolios.
While one day does not make a breakout, so far, so good.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
FYI - Chart of Gold from NFTRH132
Cup & Handle... Anyone see a bubble here? How about on a weekly? Monthly? The only people seeing bubbles are people who can't read charts and people who can't understand the concept of value (as opposed to casino gambling). 'Gold not about price, gold about value'... right casino hot shots? You will be flushed in the next rinse cycle.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
HUI Daily Chart
Here is the HUI chart we have been using in NFTRH since before the recent correction. The chart was created and over bought status ID'd just before gold bugs were sent scattering last week.
While the blogger had a few white knuckle moments, the technicals proved to be the ultimate judge of the proceedings and as of this morning, I emerge with a better quality of holdings and a firm grasp of the risk/reward equation.
There was a lot of micro management by email updates to subscribers on Monday. This morning's update was more extensive and was a review of the current situation of sector bellweather Royal Gold, gold the metal, and of course the gold stocks. Subscriber feedback said in essence "keep it coming" with regard to updates during stressful and potentially significant market events. One fellow had this to say...
"Hey Gary, thanks for the email updates the last few days. That my friend is what makes your fine service a bargain."
Anyway, let's see if we can't get a good retest scenario over with on the HUI. And yeh, the chart shows the target that we have had loaded for some time now, pending breakout and successful retest of the Symmetrical Triangle. So far, so good.
A weekly HUI chart ultimately targets much higher; the 3 Snowmen (think about it).
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
While the blogger had a few white knuckle moments, the technicals proved to be the ultimate judge of the proceedings and as of this morning, I emerge with a better quality of holdings and a firm grasp of the risk/reward equation.
There was a lot of micro management by email updates to subscribers on Monday. This morning's update was more extensive and was a review of the current situation of sector bellweather Royal Gold, gold the metal, and of course the gold stocks. Subscriber feedback said in essence "keep it coming" with regard to updates during stressful and potentially significant market events. One fellow had this to say...
"Hey Gary, thanks for the email updates the last few days. That my friend is what makes your fine service a bargain."
Anyway, let's see if we can't get a good retest scenario over with on the HUI. And yeh, the chart shows the target that we have had loaded for some time now, pending breakout and successful retest of the Symmetrical Triangle. So far, so good.
A weekly HUI chart ultimately targets much higher; the 3 Snowmen (think about it).
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
Gold This Morning: On the Road to Kansas City --Jon
Trade was quite heavy overnight and after two days of pounding on the rampart of $1500, buyers broke through. Typically after achieving seminal benchmarks there is a 'what next?' moment not dissimilar to the day after reaching one's fiftieth birthday. Do not succumb ever to thinking that this time it's different and reinforce that Buffet precept that value is what we look to identify, confirm and participate in and price is only what you pay for it. Value? How many barrels of oil, pounds of copper, ounces of silver, and bushels of grain can you purchase with one ounce of gold...you do the math and observe the historical consistencies. The facts: GSR has eased to ~33.80...RSI is ~72.60 and should continue to play out the oversold retest...gold open interest was unchanged ~538,000 aggregate contracts as of Monday and continues to reinforce the under-owned metric given levels achieved last year. Today: Just looking at the green on my screen, it's hard to make a corrective case for all the obvious reasons. Personally I would take advantage of the continuing low option vols and buy time by beginning to roll from June, the current active front month, into Augs.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
Tuesday, April 19, 2011
Agro Vating? Not Really...
But it is a lesson once again that you don't always have to know why the charts are saying what they are saying. This post was made last summer as the GKX was breaking out of a wedge and looking interesting during a bearish summer. I failed to take advantage here, although did so w/ the Uranium patch on the way to a nice 100% round trip.
Here is the same GKX chart from the original post, gulp... updated and way higher now. But charts don't work they say.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
Here is the same GKX chart from the original post, gulp... updated and way higher now. But charts don't work they say.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
Gold This Morning: On the Road @ the Indy 500 --Jon
A quick Mecca stop for we drivers, but more importantly within 5 minutes of the brickyard is a heavenly destination for barbecue. Not to be missed in one's lifetime is King Ribs Bar-B-Q www.kingribsbarbq.com . Active overnight trade with buyers maintaining a tight grip on any selling. The facts: GSR is unchanged at ~34.60 with continuing passionate perceptions ranging from the rabid to the serene. I can't absorb all the conspiracy stories and so I must remind you of the Auerbach principle...over time, you can only manipulate a market in the direction it wants to go...so act accordingly. Gold open interest as of Friday gained ~10,000 contracts. That now shows significant new buying over two days which is also manifested in firmer option vols...but they remain still very cheap historically if you are setting up call spreads. RSI has just probed the textbook overbought level this morning ~70.50; we think this is the beginning of a retest so we shall roll out an old Keynesian(?) saw, 'markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent'. Today: To complete a trifecta of market lore let's deal with the big round number theory which should give way as the newbies become believers.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
SPX must hold moving averages
...or else it is going to take a ride on the 1220 Express.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
Monday, April 18, 2011
Chartworks - Silver
Ross has some technical thoughts on silver here (top item): http://www.biiwii.com/analysis.htm
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
Emerging Markets losing support
Per a chart from yesterday's NFTRH, support is being threatened for EEM. If lost, upside target is negated for this leader.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
10 yr / 2 yr yields & GSR updated
Dunno, it looks scary, but one wonders if silver will ever stop leading gold. My guess is it will, just as soon as we get a few more confirmations that inflation expectations are getting out of hand and corporate fundamentals are beginning to degrade due to costs.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
Gold's real price...
The 'real' price of gold - AKA gold measured in commodities, stock markets and human hopes for prosperity - is rising. The last time the real price of gold rose impulsively, the gold stock sector got decimated even as its collective fundamentals got a serious boost (gold rising in relation to miner cost inputs).
While I do not expect anything even close to that cataclysm (and subsequent buying opportunity) this time around, we at NFTRH are watching closely some 'parameters' on the HUI. I can't blab about them here because I would like to keep the newsletter in business.
So I'll just say that if the HUI's parameters should trigger, keep in mind the idea that eventual opportunity in the markets usually comes hand in hand with misperception by the herd.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
While I do not expect anything even close to that cataclysm (and subsequent buying opportunity) this time around, we at NFTRH are watching closely some 'parameters' on the HUI. I can't blab about them here because I would like to keep the newsletter in business.
So I'll just say that if the HUI's parameters should trigger, keep in mind the idea that eventual opportunity in the markets usually comes hand in hand with misperception by the herd.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
MFN: Thank you and goodbye
After some hand wringing, I have decided to let this young gold & silver miner go. The market was kind enough to follow my projection to target, management was kind enough not to screw it up and I am just going to say 'thanks' and move on. Plenty of other positions.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
Gold This Morning: On the Road in Warsaw, Indiana --Jon
Traveling back roads (it's actually US 12, once upon a time a major East-West route) yesterday, through Michigan and Indiana in my 1951 Chrysler New Yorker, I gaze through drizzly mists (snow today?) and spy sequential small town American Main Streets that capture distinctive historical relevance and while not absolutely vivid yet in enterprise and social commerce that visual has certainly not disappeared as so often portrayed by our urban diet of main stream media or blogging survivalists. Gold? Reasonably active overnight trade with sellers pressuring prices. Let's review the facts...GSR at ~34.60 now simply manifests excited and impassioned silver buying energized mostly by belabored analysis of physical shorts and manipulation; we shall not dignify today's number as continued increasing liquidity; it's there. deal with it. Gold open interest rose last Thursday by 16,000 contracts. This is a remarkable number but the absolute open interest levels remain casual and incurious and suggests you should not wait until you have to queue up. Most interesting to me were last week's COT numbers that are calculated always as of the Tuesday close (don't ask me why). So last Tuesday, if you recall, was the day when we were thoroughly punished with a $20 buck intraday collapse but surprisingly the COT numbers showed large and small specs lightening and commercials, generally forward sellers, buying net modestly... In the land of the blind, the one-eyed person is King or Queen. Today: I think active gold buyers are fading and ready to buy easier prices. Just deal with the fundamentals and if you can't, then accept that we have a big round number dead ahead that at the least will be challenged. Now I have to mount up and head to Indianapolis.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
'Be Prepared'
That was the motto they taught me so many years ago. I am the little tenderfoot middle row far left, away from home for the first time, missing my mommy but putting on a brave front. Wow, 1970... Nixon had not even closed the 'gold window' yet; had not even set us upon the disconnected and debt paved path on which we now find ourselves.
Financial and lifestyle preparation, an awareness of history and a b/s detector in good working order are necessary for today's financial survivors. But unfortunately, too many people have taken the bit, bought what has been sold to them in the mainstream media and financial services industry and are now floating rudderless.
Be prepared for either eventuality; a breakout in inflationary fears that makes the 70's look quaint or the dreaded opposite. You know what that is... a deflation event that would reset the entire game and firmly put policy makers back in control.
How can the choices include such extremes? We are in the age of extremes, pinging the polar opposite extremes periodically in an ongoing continuum until finally confidence is all but lost and one monetary condition asserts itself. Be prepared.
Thanks to 'Chuckie' (1st row, 2nd from left) for the pic.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
Financial and lifestyle preparation, an awareness of history and a b/s detector in good working order are necessary for today's financial survivors. But unfortunately, too many people have taken the bit, bought what has been sold to them in the mainstream media and financial services industry and are now floating rudderless.
Be prepared for either eventuality; a breakout in inflationary fears that makes the 70's look quaint or the dreaded opposite. You know what that is... a deflation event that would reset the entire game and firmly put policy makers back in control.
How can the choices include such extremes? We are in the age of extremes, pinging the polar opposite extremes periodically in an ongoing continuum until finally confidence is all but lost and one monetary condition asserts itself. Be prepared.
Thanks to 'Chuckie' (1st row, 2nd from left) for the pic.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
Sunday, April 17, 2011
NFTRH132 Out Now
#132 has a lot of talk about with silver and gold as well as a theme that I see cropping up in the 'gold community' lately; one of angst about silver's apparent blow off and silver and gold miners' failure to assert leadership. It's 18 pages of hard working analysis that tips a hat to the nut jobs who see a conspiracy around every corner, but really, there is a reason the miners underperform and SHOULD be underperforming.
But of course, the people who believe ghost stories will mostly be removed from the PM complex by the time a FUNDAMENTALS led rise is ready to assert itself in the stocks. As for the metals, silver has gone parabolic and blown away NFTRH's 'best target' of 34. Gold grinds higher in bullish fashion.
Then there are potential limit points in the USD and T bonds, a relentlessly bullish broad market and some leading indicators to deal with. And deal with them NFTRH132 does.
NFTRH132, out now.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
But of course, the people who believe ghost stories will mostly be removed from the PM complex by the time a FUNDAMENTALS led rise is ready to assert itself in the stocks. As for the metals, silver has gone parabolic and blown away NFTRH's 'best target' of 34. Gold grinds higher in bullish fashion.
Then there are potential limit points in the USD and T bonds, a relentlessly bullish broad market and some leading indicators to deal with. And deal with them NFTRH132 does.
NFTRH132, out now.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
Friday, April 15, 2011
Gold & Silver CoT report hot off the presses...
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
http://www.biiwii.com
GOLD - COMMODITY EXCHANGE INC. Code-088691
OPTION AND FUTURES COMBINED POSITIONS AS OF 04/12/11 |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
Long | Short |Spreads | Long | Short | Long | Short | Long | Short
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(CONTRACTS OF 100 TROY OUNCES) OPEN INTEREST: 720,941
COMMITMENTS
270,364 41,471 143,551 225,017 508,199 638,932 693,222 82,009 27,720
CHANGES FROM 04/05/11 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 9,947)
-1,349 517 12,764 2,682 -1,227 14,096 12,054 -4,149 -2,106
PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADER
37.5 5.8 19.9 31.2 70.5 88.6 96.2 11.4 3.8
NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 401)
258 70 149 51 58 355 235
SILVER - COMMODITY EXCHANGE INC. Code-084691
OPTION AND FUTURES COMBINED POSITIONS AS OF 04/12/11 |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
Long | Short |Spreads | Long | Short | Long | Short | Long | Short
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(CONTRACTS OF 5,000 TROY OUNCES) OPEN INTEREST: 219,124
COMMITMENTS
47,971 10,240 78,083 52,004 108,785 178,058 197,108 41,066 22,016
CHANGES FROM 04/05/11 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 7,695)
-1,647 1,833 6,353 3,309 -1,589 8,015 6,597 -320 1,098
PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADER
21.9 4.7 35.6 23.7 49.6 81.3 90.0 18.7 10.0
NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 212)
105 46 74 42 50 180 142
Another Good Cop chimes in...
Fed Policy Makers Differ Over Policy as Inflation Accelerates
First of all, inflation is not accelerating. It was put into over drive years ago by policy makers. So can we get this MSM fueled stupidity straight before proceeding? Right now, these dunderheads are pretending that the effects of the inflation are not so bad. Wonderland is what this is.
Fed Governor Elizabeth Duke said in Washington yesterday that rising commodity costs aren’t resulting from U.S. monetary policy and don’t warrant higher interest rates, while Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo said he sees no sign of inflation spreading more broadly.
Good cops.
Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker and Philadelphia’s Charles Plosser indicated they’re more concerned about prices, with Lacker saying the central bank must tighten credit before inflation gains speed.
Bad cops.
The comments highlight an emerging debate among Fed officials over what steps to take after completing $600 billion of Treasury purchases through June. Policy makers were divided at their last meeting on March 15, with a “few” officials saying tighter credit may be warranted this year, while a “few others noted that exceptional policy accommodation could be appropriate beyond 2011.”
I hate that these people pretend to have a decision to make. It's as simple as this; you created the inflationary recovery and it is going to implode under unpayable debt and immense leverage if you do not continue the Kabuki dance. The Fed is pretending to debate amongst itself when really we are facing one of two things; 1) a breakout into intense inflationary expectations leading to hyperinflation or an unwinding of the leveraged, non-self sustaining construct.
Central bankers must validate expectations of businesses that inflation will remain low “by conducting monetary policy in such a way that inflation does not accelerate,” Lacker said yesterday at the University of Baltimore. “I believe we need to heed the lesson of the last recovery that inflation is capable of rising even if the level of economic activity has not returned to its pre-recession trend.”
Too late Jeff. It accelerated already. Now what comes next, meltdown or more acceleration still?
Another official, Narayana Kocherlakota, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said yesterday in Helena, Montana, that core inflation “is very low right now” and he doesn’t see many signs of price pressures.
Who do you think you are talking to, a bunch of dunderheads? Oh, wait... Okay, I am out of time and have lost patience with the rest of the article. See you at CoT posting time. Just think of our policy leaders as silly little clerks with immense power, taking turns putting out the jawbone materials. Tune them out and stick with honesty. It'll work out relatively well in the end; whichever way things go.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
First of all, inflation is not accelerating. It was put into over drive years ago by policy makers. So can we get this MSM fueled stupidity straight before proceeding? Right now, these dunderheads are pretending that the effects of the inflation are not so bad. Wonderland is what this is.
Fed Governor Elizabeth Duke said in Washington yesterday that rising commodity costs aren’t resulting from U.S. monetary policy and don’t warrant higher interest rates, while Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo said he sees no sign of inflation spreading more broadly.
Good cops.
Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker and Philadelphia’s Charles Plosser indicated they’re more concerned about prices, with Lacker saying the central bank must tighten credit before inflation gains speed.
Bad cops.
The comments highlight an emerging debate among Fed officials over what steps to take after completing $600 billion of Treasury purchases through June. Policy makers were divided at their last meeting on March 15, with a “few” officials saying tighter credit may be warranted this year, while a “few others noted that exceptional policy accommodation could be appropriate beyond 2011.”
I hate that these people pretend to have a decision to make. It's as simple as this; you created the inflationary recovery and it is going to implode under unpayable debt and immense leverage if you do not continue the Kabuki dance. The Fed is pretending to debate amongst itself when really we are facing one of two things; 1) a breakout into intense inflationary expectations leading to hyperinflation or an unwinding of the leveraged, non-self sustaining construct.
Central bankers must validate expectations of businesses that inflation will remain low “by conducting monetary policy in such a way that inflation does not accelerate,” Lacker said yesterday at the University of Baltimore. “I believe we need to heed the lesson of the last recovery that inflation is capable of rising even if the level of economic activity has not returned to its pre-recession trend.”
Too late Jeff. It accelerated already. Now what comes next, meltdown or more acceleration still?
Another official, Narayana Kocherlakota, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said yesterday in Helena, Montana, that core inflation “is very low right now” and he doesn’t see many signs of price pressures.
Who do you think you are talking to, a bunch of dunderheads? Oh, wait... Okay, I am out of time and have lost patience with the rest of the article. See you at CoT posting time. Just think of our policy leaders as silly little clerks with immense power, taking turns putting out the jawbone materials. Tune them out and stick with honesty. It'll work out relatively well in the end; whichever way things go.
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