Get on the right side of this while you still have time. You are well schooled, intellectual and even in some cases genius in the dogmatic way you follow your breadcrumbs. You got it all worked out my friend.
You will probably even get a stock market correction - that is your obsession, no? - but you are once again going to spend a year or so being on the wrong side when it doesn't crash, you are short gold and/or silver, short gold miners, short commodities and short broad global stocks wondering yet again why and how it all went wrong.
That is because you are lazy and cannot get over your own ego. Or something like that. Maybe it's just a blind spot. I don't know. You have been warned, just like the silly inflationists were last Spring.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
You will probably even get a stock market correction - that is your obsession, no? - but you are once again going to spend a year or so being on the wrong side when it doesn't crash, you are short gold and/or silver, short gold miners, short commodities and short broad global stocks wondering yet again why and how it all went wrong.
That is because you are lazy and cannot get over your own ego. Or something like that. Maybe it's just a blind spot. I don't know. You have been warned, just like the silly inflationists were last Spring.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
Temporarily rising or falling commodity prices (think in terms of a year or two) are one thing. Neither one are really inflation or deflation. That's measured on a much longer timeframe and involves money supply....although try telling that to someone who's paying for gas or groceries.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, commodities could be in for an ugly year if the dollar chart comes to fruition. Could be the last hurrah for bucky for some time.
But whatever. No system is infallible, so don't get so cocky, young man. lol I don't get the idea of parking money in anything or against anything for more than a couple weeks, anyway, so good luck with your forecast. Just out of curiosity, what signal would either negate or cement your opinion? Enquiring minds want to know....
Right, inflation or deflation has nothing to do with what prices are doing. I agree. But what I am trying to show is that policy makers can inflate at will when certain conditions are in place. Like now.
ReplyDeleteAs for getting cocky, you are right there too. I have always said that when the system ends, it would be the FINAL deflation; the real one.
Before yesterday's one day wonder, I had a question about whether the rise in yields (and the beginnings a bouncing baby inflation cycle) was beginning now or after a decline to the bottom of the channel on the monthly TYX. I still do, but am leaning toward 'inflationary hysterics 2012' start now.
We'll see.
One thing about hysterics, they're usually pretty entertaining.
ReplyDeleteAnd might as well be cocky--if you can't have fun doing this, what's the point?