I have seen enough, time to start shimmying into bear positions (esp. after contemplating that copper chart the other day). And no, no details here because it is just as an indirect hedge and because being short against these markets is not the preferred way to manage risk; that is as usual, cash. If I am wrong and the wonder rally continues, so be it. I'll adjust.
But I am generally getting more bearish (for at least a notable correction) as the days drag on.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
But I am generally getting more bearish (for at least a notable correction) as the days drag on.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
Short SPY is a crowded trade. And short Q means standing in front of the freight train that is AAPL.
ReplyDeleteShort SIL looks bad cos it still hasn't broken its EMA(8).
Short GDXJ looks bad cos it's managing to hold on to its EMA(45) just a couple points below its EMA(8).
Short gold looks bad cos Wednesday saw Asians buying on opportunity and $500M of inflows to GLD when gold dropped.
Short silver looks bad cos it's failing to collapse in the face of today's dollar uptick.
Short commods looks bad because despite Bernanke's suspected taking away the punchbowl, (as you would call it a "noise item"), the Euro LTRO program is still a gigantic stealth QE, and Japan is following that with outright currency debasement.
So, what... you shorting oil? That seems the only logical thing left.
Only trying to provide you with counter-arguments here.
Ah John, you know how I appreciate your counter arguments. Short base metals due to Cu & GYX charts. Short a couple other things too (though no PM's), but no expectations. Just balance for the moment. Will undo when I am proven wrong once again. :-(
ReplyDeleteSo... you think Cu & $GYX are double-topping?
ReplyDeleteI guess if they break resistance, then your stop-out is close by.
Interesting... so if we can figure out what a base metal drop could be caused by, then we just might have predicted next week's headlines.
BTW... if $GYX and JJC are double-topping, then so are GDXJ and $HUI and SIL. That's... a rather doomy scenario.
ReplyDeleteI try not to think anything John. I try to just be. Sort of like Pooh.
ReplyDeleteYou saw the email update and the parameters and what it was about HUI daily chart I did not like, no?
ReplyDeleteI'm more interested in $HUI's uptrend support line showing support at 515. Til that's broken this is a small correction. If it doesn't break, now you've got a pennant formation. I thought that pennants off major bottoms were good?
ReplyDeleteThough don't forget that many of the major producers in the $HUI stink, fundie-wise and chart-wise. GDXJ and SIL look better. I think it would take a CATASTROPHE to tank those two. And since I own no $HUI stocks....
But you recall why I noted that HUI has IMO more to prove on its support than its ability to get thru resistance. Well, that support is being lost and the fact that Huey did not make a higher high is coming into play, for me at least.
ReplyDelete