The 'real' price of gold makes a hint vs. broad commodities. The RPG is vital to this blogger's particular investment case. That and a whiff of deflation/economic contraction. But then, you already knew that.
Edit (3:58) Epiphany Alert: I just realized why some people find this blog confusing. Did I not recently write about a more honest inflationary environment possibly taking place in 'inflationary 2012'? Did I not talk about precious metals and commodities potentially entering the bull game at some point? Yet this post talks deflation. What gives?
Commodities will only do well in an environment of outwardly obvious inflationary concerns. Doctor Copper is bouncing all over the place, and has now bounced down to 3.77/lb, testing its recent break back above resistance (now support).
But the RPG is going to rise on the interim deflationary impulses and it would signal oncoming economic contraction if it rises. It would also signal improving gold - not copper, not tin and not necessarily silver -... gold mining fundamentals. What it could also signal is the makings of a future inflation 'effects' cycle.
My epiphany is that I think I am trying to talk too much on a free blog without filling in enough blanks to all the moving parts going on in the macro. For that I apologize if it screws up readers' noise-o-meters. But a free blog is not a place to do the laborious work of making the complex clear.
I will however try to keep what is posted here clear and concise. It is just that I can be a big mouth and when I get on a theme I just go... sort of like now.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
Edit (3:58) Epiphany Alert: I just realized why some people find this blog confusing. Did I not recently write about a more honest inflationary environment possibly taking place in 'inflationary 2012'? Did I not talk about precious metals and commodities potentially entering the bull game at some point? Yet this post talks deflation. What gives?
Commodities will only do well in an environment of outwardly obvious inflationary concerns. Doctor Copper is bouncing all over the place, and has now bounced down to 3.77/lb, testing its recent break back above resistance (now support).
But the RPG is going to rise on the interim deflationary impulses and it would signal oncoming economic contraction if it rises. It would also signal improving gold - not copper, not tin and not necessarily silver -... gold mining fundamentals. What it could also signal is the makings of a future inflation 'effects' cycle.
My epiphany is that I think I am trying to talk too much on a free blog without filling in enough blanks to all the moving parts going on in the macro. For that I apologize if it screws up readers' noise-o-meters. But a free blog is not a place to do the laborious work of making the complex clear.
I will however try to keep what is posted here clear and concise. It is just that I can be a big mouth and when I get on a theme I just go... sort of like now.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
As a precious metals bull, I read, see, and understand everything you say, however, my "vital signs" are no longer registering!
ReplyDeleteThey are not supposed to. That is why only people who need their heads examined deal in this space. Now that the S/T rally is cooked, we are back on a big picture that does not care what kind of pain is inflicted in the short term.
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