Anyway, EWI notes: "The chart plots the 5-day closing CBOE Equity put/call ratio, which declined to .60 at yesterday's [Aug. 9] close. That was the lowest close since May 1 (.58)"
Well, the NFTRH measure is a bit different. We have been using .60 as a target but instead of using the spiky indicator itself, or the not quite so spiky 5 day average, the 20 day exponential moving average is used to smooth out the signal. I mean, who is going to chase the nominal CPCE all around? Talk about jagged.
The smoothed out signal on NFTRH's chart has a way to go before code red - which should come with other indicators falling in line as well. The bear opportunity should be very good and EWI will be right about a market top, eventually.
I find the 20 or even 10 day average much easier to deal with. Here is the 20 vs. 5. It helps one avoid false signals and mental whipsaws. When the EMA 20 gets to .60, risk is likely to be alarming. And who do you suppose will have bought back in to the market by then?
We have an upside target on SPX, a downside target on the CPCE's EMA 20 and a hell of a lot of other indicators that need to play in concert to give a strong bear signal. Meanwhile, the first chart above is one of the tools I used in determining that risk is now rising (see NFTRH199's page 1 screenshot) right along with the ongoing market rally. But as of last weekend was not yet terminal. I look forward to getting to work this weekend because it is only in doing the work each weekend that I feel well oriented.
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